Football · Brazil Serie A · 19/11, 23:30

Prediction: Vasco da Gama vs Internacional

Team pages: Vasco da Gama · Internacional

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Vasco da Gama2.09

Internacional1.15

1X2

57% 24% 19%

Vasco da Gama Draw Internacional

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Vasco da Gama 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Internacional 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Vasco da Gama 2–1–3 Internacional (6 last)

Internacional4-1Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama5-1Internacional
Internacional1-1Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama0-1Internacional
Internacional1-2Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama1-2Internacional

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasco da Gama 1541 · Internacional 1485

	Vasco da Gama	Draw	Internacional
Our model	58%	23%	19%
Market	57%	25%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vasco da Gama (rating 1541 vs 1485).
H2H favours Internacional: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasco da Gama	Internacional
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.7	1.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	6.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.75

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +6’	1.61	3.75	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasco da Gama 2–1–3 Internacional

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	4-1 HT 2-0	Vasco da Gama
28/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	5-1 HT 2-1	Internacional
27/07/25 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	1-1 HT 0-1	Vasco da Gama
22/11/24 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	0-1 HT 0-0	Internacional
07/07/24 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	1-2 HT 0-0	Vasco da Gama
27/10/23 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	1-2 HT 0-1	Internacional

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	71	29	76
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	62	23	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	55	48	60
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	55	42	57
5	Athletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	51	43	54
6	EC Bahia	34	14	11	9	50	45	53
7	Atletico Mineiro	34	14	8	12	44	40	50
8	Bragantino	34	13	8	13	44	39	47
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	50	49	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	39	39	44
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	46	53	42
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40	51	42
13	Vasco da Gama	33	11	8	14	43	50	41
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39	48	40
15	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	35	51	38
16	Internacional	34	9	11	14	38	42	38
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	36	42	37
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	38	47	37
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	37	57	29
20	Chapecoense	33	4	9	20	33	68	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasco da Gama	Internacional
Corinthians	3-2 W	2-1 W
Sao Paulo	0-1 L	0-1 L
Botafogo	2-1 W	3-0 W
Coritiba	5-0 W	1-0 W
Gremio	2-1 W	1-1 D
Fluminense	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vasco da Gama (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vasco da Gama

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-1	3-1	0	5	W
30/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-4	6	2	L
24/10	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-2	3	4	W
18/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
10/10	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
08/10	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	14	1	W
20/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-0	5-0	12	3	W
12/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
06/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
30/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	11	3	W

Internacional

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	15	7	W
28/10	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
24/10	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-0	9	3	W
17/10	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	9	L
11/10	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
08/10	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	3	9	W
20/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
12/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-3	2-3	7	9	L
31/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-3	2-3	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasco da Gama vs Internacional?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vasco da Gama win (57%). Probabilities: Vasco da Gama 57%, draw 24%, Internacional 19%.

How many goals are expected in Vasco da Gama vs Internacional?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Vasco da Gama 2.09 · Internacional 1.15), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasco da Gama vs Internacional?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.