Football · Brazil Serie A · 20/11, 01:30

Prediction: Sao Paulo vs Fluminense

Team pages: Sao Paulo · Fluminense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Sao Paulo1.43

Fluminense1.2

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Sao Paulo Draw Fluminense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Paulo 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWDLD

Fluminense 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLLLWW

Head-to-head

Sao Paulo 2–4 Fluminense (6 last)

Fluminense2-1Sao Paulo
Fluminense6-0Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo3-1Fluminense
Fluminense2-0Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo2-1Fluminense
Fluminense1-0Sao Paulo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Paulo 1477 · Fluminense 1528

	Sao Paulo	Draw	Fluminense
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fluminense (rating 1477 vs 1528).
H2H favours Fluminense: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Paulo	Fluminense
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 8	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.42 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.27
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 4.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +2’	2.30	3.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +5’	2.42	3.27	3.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Paulo 2–0–4 Fluminense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	2-1 HT 2-0	Sao Paulo
28/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	6-0 HT 3-0	Sao Paulo
27/07/25 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	3-1 HT 1-0	Fluminense
01/09/24 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	2-0 HT 1-0	Sao Paulo
14/05/24 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	2-1 HT 1-1	Fluminense
23/11/23 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	1-0 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	71	29	76
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	62	23	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	55	48	60
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	55	42	57
5	Athletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	51	43	54
6	EC Bahia	34	14	11	9	50	45	53
7	Atletico Mineiro	34	14	8	12	44	40	50
8	Bragantino	34	13	8	13	44	39	47
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	50	49	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	39	39	44
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	46	53	42
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40	51	42
13	Vasco da Gama	33	11	8	14	43	50	41
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39	48	40
15	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	35	51	38
16	Internacional	34	9	11	14	38	42	38
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	36	42	37
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	38	47	37
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	37	57	29
20	Chapecoense	33	4	9	20	33	68	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Paulo	Fluminense
Corinthians	0-0 D	3-1 W
Vasco da Gama	1-0 W	1-0 W
Vitoria	2-1 W	3-0 W
Santos	1-2 L	1-2 L
Internacional	1-0 W	2-1 W
Atletico Mineiro	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fluminense (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sao Paulo

WLWLLWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/11	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	10	D
29/10	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	2-2	2-3	11	5	L
24/10	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	7	5	D
18/10	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/10	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	8	W
08/10	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
03/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	14	4	L
20/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
05/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	16	2	W

Fluminense

DWLWWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
28/10	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
25/10	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
18/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	3	L
11/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
09/10	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	4-0	3	1	W
20/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	1	8	W
12/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-3	2	3	L
06/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
30/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-3	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Paulo win (41%). Probabilities: Sao Paulo 41%, draw 29%, Fluminense 30%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Sao Paulo 1.43 · Fluminense 1.2), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.