Football · Brazil Serie A · 19/11, 01:30

Prediction: Gremio vs EC Bahia

Team pages: Gremio · EC Bahia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Gremio1.61

EC Bahia1.35

1X2

42% 27% 31%

Gremio Draw EC Bahia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Gremio 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDDDLWWL

EC Bahia 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWLDWL

Head-to-head

Gremio 2–1–3 EC Bahia (6 last)

EC Bahia1-1Gremio
EC Bahia4-0Gremio
Gremio1-0EC Bahia
Gremio0-2EC Bahia
EC Bahia1-0Gremio
Gremio1-0EC Bahia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gremio 1502 · EC Bahia 1507

	Gremio	Draw	EC Bahia
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours EC Bahia: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gremio	EC Bahia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.26
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.61 ★
2	2.90 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.07

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 4.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:41 +33’	2.30	3.40	2.90
08:05 +9’	2.20▼	3.40	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:04 +11’	2.27	3.60	3.06
08:11 +4’	2.26▼	3.61▲	3.07▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio 2–1–3 EC Bahia

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-1 HT 0-0	Gremio
20/10/25 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	4-0 HT 2-0	Gremio
25/05/25 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	1-0 HT 0-0	EC Bahia
17/08/24 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	0-2 HT 0-1	EC Bahia
28/04/24 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-0 HT 1-0	Gremio
04/11/23 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	1-0 HT 0-0	EC Bahia

Standings · Brazil Serie A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	71	29	76
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	62	23	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	55	48	60
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	55	42	57
5	Athletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	51	43	54
6	EC Bahia	34	14	11	9	50	45	53
7	Atletico Mineiro	34	14	8	12	44	40	50
8	Bragantino	34	13	8	13	44	39	47
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	50	49	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	39	39	44
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	46	53	42
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40	51	42
13	Vasco da Gama	33	11	8	14	43	50	41
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39	48	40
15	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	35	51	38
16	Internacional	34	9	11	14	38	42	38
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	36	42	37
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	38	47	37
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	37	57	29
20	Chapecoense	33	4	9	20	33	68	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gremio	EC Bahia
Flamengo	1-3 L	0-3 L
Athletico Paranaense	2-0 W	1-2 L
Cruzeiro	2-4 L	2-3 L
Internacional	1-1 D	3-2 W
Remo	1-1 D	2-1 W
Palmeiras	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gremio

LLLDDDLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-3	1-3	4	2	L
30/10	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
26/10	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
18/10	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	2-1	2-4	8	6	L
11/10	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
08/10	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
20/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	10	D
17/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
12/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
08/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	1	7	L

EC Bahia

WWWLLWLDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	7	5	L
29/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	2-2	3-2	7	5	W
25/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	8	5	D
18/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-3	4	6	L
12/10	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
09/10	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
21/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
15/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
05/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	2-2	3-2	8	3	W
31/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	3-1	3-2	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gremio vs EC Bahia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gremio win (42%). Probabilities: Gremio 42%, draw 27%, EC Bahia 31%.

How many goals are expected in Gremio vs EC Bahia?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Gremio 1.61 · EC Bahia 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gremio vs EC Bahia?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.