Football · Brazil Serie A · 19/11, 00:30

Prediction: Flamengo vs Athletico Paranaense

Team pages: Flamengo · Athletico Paranaense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

Flamengo2.6

Athletico Paranaense0.8

1X2

75% 16% 8%

Flamengo Draw Athletico Paranaense

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Flamengo 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWWWW

Athletico Paranaense 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWDWLDLL

Head-to-head

Flamengo 3–2–1 Athletico Paranaense (6 last)

Athletico Paranaense1-1Flamengo
Flamengo1-0Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense1-1Flamengo
Flamengo0-3Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense0-2Flamengo
Flamengo2-1Athletico Paranaense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Flamengo 1606 · Athletico Paranaense 1470

	Flamengo	Draw	Athletico Paranaense
Our model	75%	16%	9%
Market	75%	17%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flamengo (rating 1606 vs 1470).
H2H favours Flamengo: 3-2-1.
High corners: 16 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Flamengo	Athletico Paranaense
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.8	1.7 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.2	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	5.2 / 8.8	2.6 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.50

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.88

2 (+1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Pinn 1.24
X	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 6.59 ★
2	11.00 → 11.00	Pinn 11.06

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:02 +8’	1.22	5.50	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:59 +12’	1.24	6.59	11.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Flamengo 3–2–1 Athletico Paranaense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	1-1 HT 1-0	Flamengo
30/09/24 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	1-0 HT 0-0	Athletico Paranaense
16/06/24 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	1-1 HT 0-0	Flamengo
14/09/23 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	0-3 HT 0-1	Athletico Paranaense
13/07/23 Copa do Brasil	Athletico Paranaense	0-2 HT 0-1	Flamengo
06/07/23 Copa do Brasil	Flamengo	2-1 HT 0-1	Athletico Paranaense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	71	29	76
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	62	23	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	55	48	60
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	55	42	57
5	Athletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	51	43	54
6	EC Bahia	34	14	11	9	50	45	53
7	Atletico Mineiro	34	14	8	12	44	40	50
8	Bragantino	34	13	8	13	44	39	47
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	50	49	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	39	39	44
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	46	53	42
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40	51	42
13	Vasco da Gama	33	11	8	14	43	50	41
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39	48	40
15	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	35	51	38
16	Internacional	34	9	11	14	38	42	38
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	36	42	37
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	38	47	37
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	37	57	29
20	Chapecoense	33	4	9	20	33	68	21

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Flamengo	Athletico Paranaense
Gremio	3-1 W	0-2 L
Vasco da Gama	4-1 W	1-3 L
Atletico Mineiro	3-2 W	2-2 D
EC Bahia	3-0 W	2-1 W
Fluminense	1-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Flamengo (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Flamengo

WWWWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	Gremio Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-1	7	2	W
30/10	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
27/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-2	14	2	W
18/10	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-0	14	6	W
11/10	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
09/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-2	5	11	D
20/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
13/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	20	6	W
06/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
03/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	9	2	W

Athletico Paranaense

DLDWDWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-3	7	5	L
30/10	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	8	7	L
24/10	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
18/10	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	16	5	L
13/10	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	3-0	4-1	7	3	W
09/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-2	10	3	D
21/09	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-3	3	8	D
06/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
30/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-3	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Flamengo vs Athletico Paranaense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Flamengo win (75%). Probabilities: Flamengo 75%, draw 16%, Athletico Paranaense 8%.

How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Athletico Paranaense?

The model expects 3.41 goals (Flamengo 2.6 · Athletico Paranaense 0.8), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Athletico Paranaense?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.