Football · Brazil Serie A · 19/11, 00:30

Prediction: Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras

Team pages: Cruzeiro · Palmeiras

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Cruzeiro1.25

Palmeiras1.42

1X2

32% 28% 40%

Cruzeiro Draw Palmeiras

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Cruzeiro 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLWWWW

Palmeiras 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Cruzeiro 1–3–2 Palmeiras (6 last)

Palmeiras1-1Cruzeiro
Palmeiras0-0Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro2-1Palmeiras
Cruzeiro1-2Palmeiras
Palmeiras2-0Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro1-1Palmeiras

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cruzeiro 1552 · Palmeiras 1565

	Cruzeiro	Draw	Palmeiras
Our model	32%	28%	40%
Market	32%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Palmeiras: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cruzeiro	Palmeiras
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.5	1.8 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	1.1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.8 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.92
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.46
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.42 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 4.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:00 +10’	2.88	3.40	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:59 +11’	2.92	3.46	2.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruzeiro 1–3–2 Palmeiras

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	1-1 HT 1-1	Cruzeiro
27/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	0-0 HT 0-0	Cruzeiro
02/06/25 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	2-1 HT 2-0	Palmeiras
05/12/24 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	1-2 HT 0-0	Palmeiras
21/07/24 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	2-0 HT 1-0	Cruzeiro
07/12/23 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	1-1 HT 0-1	Palmeiras

Standings · Brazil Serie A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	71	29	76
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	62	23	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	55	48	60
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	55	42	57
5	Athletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	51	43	54
6	EC Bahia	34	14	11	9	50	45	53
7	Atletico Mineiro	34	14	8	12	44	40	50
8	Bragantino	34	13	8	13	44	39	47
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	50	49	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	39	39	44
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	46	53	42
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40	51	42
13	Vasco da Gama	33	11	8	14	43	50	41
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39	48	40
15	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	35	51	38
16	Internacional	34	9	11	14	38	42	38
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	36	42	37
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	38	47	37
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	37	57	29
20	Chapecoense	33	4	9	20	33	68	21

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cruzeiro	Palmeiras
EC Bahia	3-2 W	1-0 W
Remo	1-0 W	6-1 W
Gremio	4-2 W	0-0 D
Bragantino	2-4 L	2-0 W
Sao Paulo	2-0 W	2-0 W
Santos	1-2 L	0-0 D
Athletico Paranaense	3-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Palmeiras (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cruzeiro

LWLWWLWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	5	5	W
29/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
24/10	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
18/10	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-2	4-2	8	6	W
13/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-3	2-4	6	4	L
08/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
20/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	3-1	2	3	W
13/09	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
06/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-1	7	4	W
30/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-3	3	3	L

Palmeiras

DDWDWWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/11	Remo Brazil Serie A	4-1	6-1	5	4	W
28/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
24/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	9	6	W
18/10	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	1	5	W
11/10	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-1	7	7	W
09/10	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
20/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	9	10	D
12/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	9	6	W
06/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
30/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Palmeiras win (40%). Probabilities: Cruzeiro 32%, draw 28%, Palmeiras 40%.

How many goals are expected in Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Cruzeiro 1.25 · Palmeiras 1.42), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.