Football · Brazil Serie A · 18/11, 23:30
Prediction: Coritiba vs Santos
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.85Total
Coritiba1.27
Santos1.58
1X2
Coritiba
Draw
Santos
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Coritiba
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Santos
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Coritiba
1–1–4
Santos
(6 last)
- Santos0-3Coritiba
- Coritiba0-2Santos
- Santos0-0Coritiba
- Coritiba1-4Santos
- Coritiba0-2Santos
- Santos4-0Coritiba
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Coritiba 1453 · Santos 1523
| Coritiba | Draw | Santos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Market | 30% | 27% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santos (rating 1453 vs 1523).
- H2H favours Santos: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Coritiba | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2 | 1.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.8 | 2.2 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 5.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Coritiba 1–1–4 Santos
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Brazil Serie A | Santos | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Coritiba |
| 14/05/26 Copa do Brasil | Coritiba | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Santos |
| 23/04/26 Copa do Brasil | Santos | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Coritiba |
| 16/03/25 America Friendlies | Coritiba | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Santos |
| 12/11/24 Brazil Serie B | Coritiba | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Santos |
| 23/07/24 Brazil Serie B | Santos | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Coritiba |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | 76 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62 | 23 | 73 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | 60 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | 57 |
| 5 | Athletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | 54 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 45 | 53 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44 | 40 | 50 |
| 8 | Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44 | 39 | 47 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | 47 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 44 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | 42 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | 42 |
| 13 | Vasco da Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 50 | 41 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 48 | 40 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | 38 |
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 42 | 38 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 42 | 37 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | 37 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 37 | 57 | 29 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33 | 68 | 21 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Coritiba | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Atletico Mineiro | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Fluminense | 0-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Remo | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Santos (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Coritiba
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 31/10 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 26/10 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 17/10 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/10 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 09/10 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 20/09 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
1-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 06/09 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 01/09 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
Santos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 28/10 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 25/10 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 5 | D |
| 18/10 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 09/10 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 11 | D |
| 03/10 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 13/09 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
3-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Coritiba vs Santos?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Santos win (44%). Probabilities: Coritiba 29%, draw 27%, Santos 44%.
How many goals are expected in Coritiba vs Santos?
The model expects 2.85 goals (Coritiba 1.27 · Santos 1.58), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Santos?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.