Football · Brazil Serie A · 19/11, 01:30
Prediction: Corinthians vs Botafogo
Team pages: Corinthians · Botafogo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.68Total
Corinthians1.65
Botafogo1.03
1X2
Corinthians
Draw
Botafogo
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Corinthians
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Botafogo
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Corinthians
1–2–3
Botafogo
(6 last)
- Botafogo3-1Corinthians
- Corinthians2-2Botafogo
- Botafogo1-1Corinthians
- Botafogo2-1Corinthians
- Corinthians0-1Botafogo
- Corinthians1-0Botafogo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Corinthians 1418 · Botafogo 1488
| Corinthians | Draw | Botafogo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 27% | 23% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Botafogo (rating 1418 vs 1488).
- H2H favours Botafogo: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Corinthians | Botafogo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.8 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6.3 | 2.2 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.2 | 3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Corinthians 1–2–3 Botafogo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Brazil Serie A | Botafogo | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Corinthians |
| 30/11/25 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Botafogo |
| 26/07/25 Brazil Serie A | Botafogo | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Corinthians |
| 15/09/24 Brazil Serie A | Botafogo | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Corinthians |
| 02/06/24 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Botafogo |
| 23/09/23 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Botafogo |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | 76 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62 | 23 | 73 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | 60 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | 57 |
| 5 | Athletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | 54 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 45 | 53 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44 | 40 | 50 |
| 8 | Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44 | 39 | 47 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | 47 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 44 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | 42 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | 42 |
| 13 | Vasco da Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 50 | 41 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 48 | 40 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | 38 |
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 42 | 38 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 42 | 37 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | 37 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 37 | 57 | 29 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33 | 68 | 21 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Corinthians | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Vasco da Gama | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Palmeiras | 1-4 L | 0-0 D |
| Internacional | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Chapecoense | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 4 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Corinthians
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 10 | D |
| 31/10 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 24/10 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 20/10 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 11/10 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 08/10 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 9 | L |
| 20/09 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 11 | 8 | L |
| 13/09 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 07/09 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
Botafogo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 29/10 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 24/10 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 17/10 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 12/10 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 08/10 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 19/09 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 17/09 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 06/09 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Corinthians vs Botafogo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Corinthians win (51%). Probabilities: Corinthians 51%, draw 27%, Botafogo 23%.
How many goals are expected in Corinthians vs Botafogo?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Corinthians 1.65 · Botafogo 1.03), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Botafogo?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.