Football · Colombia Primera A · 04/11, 02:10

Prediction: Millonarios vs America de Cali

Team pages: Millonarios · America de Cali

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Millonarios1.63

America de Cali1.02

1X2

50% 27% 23%

Millonarios Draw America de Cali

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Millonarios 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

LDDWWDDDWD

America de Cali 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDWWLDWW

Head-to-head

Millonarios 2–2–2 America de Cali (6 last)

America de Cali3-1Millonarios
Millonarios2-1America de Cali
America de Cali0-0Millonarios
Millonarios1-1America de Cali
America de Cali2-1Millonarios
Millonarios1-0America de Cali

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Millonarios 1523 · America de Cali 1565

	Millonarios	Draw	America de Cali
Our model	50%	27%	23%
Market	50%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours America de Cali (rating 1523 vs 1565).
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Millonarios	America de Cali
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.8	2.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.40

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.86
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.35 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:43 +10’	1.83	3.40	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:49 +4’	1.86	3.39	4.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Millonarios 2–2–2 America de Cali

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 Colombia Primera A	America de Cali	3-1 HT 2-0	Millonarios
08/10/25 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	2-1 HT 0-0	America de Cali
17/04/25 Colombia Primera A	America de Cali	0-0 HT 0-0	Millonarios
19/01/25 America Friendlies	Millonarios	1-1 HT 1-0	America de Cali
12/10/24 Colombia Primera A	America de Cali	2-1 HT 1-0	Millonarios
08/02/24 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	1-0 HT 0-0	America de Cali

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	16	11	2	3	32	13	35
2	America de Cali	16	10	4	2	31	12	34
3	Deportivo Cali	16	8	6	2	24	10	30
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	16	7	7	2	25	16	28
5	Independiente Santa Fe	16	8	4	4	23	17	28
6	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24	14	26
7	Once Caldas	17	6	6	5	21	18	24
8	Independiente Medellin	16	7	2	7	23	24	23
9	Aguilas Doradas	16	5	7	4	21	20	22
10	Cucuta Deportivo	16	6	3	7	18	24	21
11	Deportes Tolima	16	5	5	6	18	19	20
12	Internacional de Bogota	17	4	8	5	21	23	20
13	Llaneros	17	6	2	9	19	23	20
14	Alianza	16	5	3	8	16	27	18
15	Deportivo Pereira	16	3	8	5	12	19	17
16	Junior	17	3	7	7	23	27	16
17	Boyaca Chico	16	4	4	8	13	26	16
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	16	3	4	9	17	29	13
19	Fortaleza CEIF	16	1	9	6	17	24	12
20	Deportivo Pasto	16	3	3	10	11	24	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Millonarios	America de Cali
Jaguares de Cordoba	4-1 W	2-2 D
Fortaleza CEIF	1-1 D	2-1 W
Independiente Medellin	2-2 D	1-2 L
Cucuta Deportivo	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Millonarios

LDDWWDDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
18/10	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	2-1	4-1	3	11	W
09/10	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
30/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-2	4	5	D
25/09	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
19/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
14/09	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
11/09	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	7	10	D
07/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
03/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-3	8	8	L

America de Cali

DWLDWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
25/10	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-1	6	3	W
18/10	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
12/10	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	2	6	L
05/10	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
24/09	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	11	7	W
21/09	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
15/09	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
03/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
29/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	13	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Millonarios vs America de Cali?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Millonarios win (50%). Probabilities: Millonarios 50%, draw 27%, America de Cali 23%.

How many goals are expected in Millonarios vs America de Cali?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Millonarios 1.63 · America de Cali 1.02), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Millonarios vs America de Cali?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.