Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 08/11, 02:30

Prediction: CD Olimpia vs Olancho FC

Team pages: CD Olimpia · Olancho FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

CD Olimpia2.09

Olancho FC0.76

1X2

68% 21% 12%

CD Olimpia Draw Olancho FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Olimpia 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DDWLWWWWWW

Olancho FC 1-7-2 (W-D-L)

DLDDDDLDWD

Head-to-head

CD Olimpia 0–5–1 Olancho FC (6 last)

Olancho FC1-1CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia0-0Olancho FC
Olancho FC1-1CD Olimpia
Olancho FC2-2CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia2-2Olancho FC
Olancho FC1-0CD Olimpia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Olimpia 1585 · Olancho FC 1489

	CD Olimpia	Draw	Olancho FC
Our model	67%	21%	12%
Market	68%	20%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Olimpia (rating 1585 vs 1489).
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Olimpia	Olancho FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.6	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.50

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 00:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.33▼	Bet365 1.33
X	4.20 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
2	7.00 → 7.50▲	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:18 +15’	1.36	4.20	7.00
14:49 +12’	1.17▼	5.75▲	15.00▲
16:16 +5’	1.20▲	5.25▼	12.00▼
21:43 +13’	1.33▲	4.33▼	8.00▼
00:12 +7’	1.33	4.50▲	7.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Olimpia 0–5–1 Olancho FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/08/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Olancho FC	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Olimpia
19/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	0-0 HT 0-0	Olancho FC
29/01/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Olancho FC	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Olimpia
04/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Olancho FC	2-2 HT 1-1	CD Olimpia
18/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	2-2 HT 0-1	Olancho FC
04/04/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Olancho FC	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Olimpia

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	13	10	2	1	34	8	32
2	Real Espana	13	8	4	1	23	11	28
3	Motagua	13	9	1	3	21	10	28
4	CD Marathon	13	7	4	2	21	12	25
5	Olancho FC	13	3	8	2	15	12	17
6	Lobos UPNFM	13	4	4	5	15	16	16
7	Estrella Roja	13	4	4	5	22	24	16
8	Atletico Choloma	13	4	2	7	12	15	14
9	Genesis de Comayagua	13	3	3	7	16	17	12
10	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	13	2	6	5	11	21	12
11	CD Platense	13	2	2	9	13	32	8
12	Juticalpa	13	2	0	11	11	36	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Olimpia	Olancho FC
Atletico Choloma	3-0 W	0-0 D
Lobos UPNFM	1-0 W	0-0 D
Real Espana	2-1 W	1-1 D
Genesis de Comayagua	1-0 W	0-0 D
CA Independiente Siguatepeque	4-0 W	1-1 D
CD Marathon	0-1 L	1-2 L
CD Platense	4-1 W	4-1 W
Estrella Roja	2-2 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 6 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Olimpia (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Olimpia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/11	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	4-0	8-0	6	4	W
01/11	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	3-0	5	8	W
26/10	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/10	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	4	11	W
10/10	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
21/09	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	4-0	2	4	W
14/09	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	6	14	L
04/09	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	4-1	6	4	W
30/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-2	5	9	D
24/08	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	3	2	D

Olancho FC

DLDDDDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
02/11	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	4-1	4	6	W
24/10	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	3-3	3	3	D
16/10	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	1-2	2	5	L
12/10	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
19/09	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
13/09	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	4	10	D
05/09	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
30/08	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
24/08	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	1	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Olimpia vs Olancho FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Olimpia win (68%). Probabilities: CD Olimpia 68%, draw 21%, Olancho FC 12%.

How many goals are expected in CD Olimpia vs Olancho FC?

The model expects 2.85 goals (CD Olimpia 2.09 · Olancho FC 0.76), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Olimpia vs Olancho FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.