Football · Mali Premiere Division · 01/11, 17:00

Prediction: Binga FC vs USFAS Bamako

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.99Total

Binga FC1.11

USFAS Bamako0.88

1X2

40% 33% 28%

Binga FC Draw USFAS Bamako

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Binga FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWLLLD

USFAS Bamako 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLDWLW

Head-to-head

Binga FC 3–1–2 USFAS Bamako (6 last)

USFAS Bamako0-0Binga FC
Binga FC1-2USFAS Bamako
Binga FC5-2USFAS Bamako
USFAS Bamako3-2Binga FC
Binga FC1-0USFAS Bamako
USFAS Bamako0-1Binga FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Binga FC 1481 · USFAS Bamako 1527

	Binga FC	Draw	USFAS Bamako
Our model	39%	33%	27%
Market	40%	32%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 1.99 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours USFAS Bamako (rating 1481 vs 1527).
H2H favours Binga FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Binga FC	USFAS Bamako
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.6	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	67/22/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.8	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X2.80

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:02 +9’	2.25	2.80	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Binga FC 3–1–2 USFAS Bamako

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 Mali Premiere Division	USFAS Bamako	0-0 HT 0-0	Binga FC
05/12/25 Mali Premiere Division	Binga FC	1-2 HT 1-1	USFAS Bamako
25/05/25 Mali Premiere Division	Binga FC	5-2 HT 4-1	USFAS Bamako
01/02/25 Mali Premiere Division	USFAS Bamako	3-2 HT 2-2	Binga FC
04/04/24 Mali Premiere Division	Binga FC	1-0 HT 0-0	USFAS Bamako
02/12/23 Mali Premiere Division	USFAS Bamako	0-1 HT 0-1	Binga FC

Standings · Mali Premiere Division

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#	Team	P	D	Pts
1	AS Kayes	1	1	1
1	US Bougouba	1	1	1
3	Afrique Football Elite	0	0	0
3	AS Bakaridjan	0	0	0
3	AS Korofina	0	0	0
3	Real Bamako	0	0	0
3	Binga FC	0	0	0
3	Centre Sportif de Bamako	0	0	0
3	Derby Academie	0	0	0
3	Djoliba AC	0	0	0
3	FC Diarra	0	0	0
3	Onze Créateurs	0	0	0
3	Stade Malien	0	0	0
3	USFAS Bamako	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Binga FC	USFAS Bamako
Onze Créateurs	0-0 D	3-0 W
Stade Malien	1-2 L	2-2 D
US Bougouba	0-1 L	1-2 L
Djoliba AC	1-2 L	1-2 L
Afrique Football Elite	1-0 W	3-2 W
AS Korofina	2-0 W	3-0 W
Real Bamako	1-0 W	2-1 W
FC Diarra	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: USFAS Bamako (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Binga FC

DDLWWWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/06	Onze Créateurs Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
09/06	Stade Malien Mali Premiere Division	0-1	1-2	3	8	L
05/06	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
02/06	Djoliba AC Mali Premiere Division	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
24/05	Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
19/05	AS Korofina Mali Premiere Division	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
09/05	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	1-0	1-0	0	5	W
03/05	FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/04	Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
03/04	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	6	2	D

USFAS Bamako

WWWWLLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/06	Mali Coura Mali Premiere Division	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
09/06	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
04/06	Onze Créateurs Mali Premiere Division	1-0	3-0	3	1	W
31/05	Stade Malien Mali Premiere Division	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
25/05	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
22/05	Djoliba AC Mali Premiere Division	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
10/05	Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
03/05	AS Korofina Mali Premiere Division	2-0	3-0	9	6	W
15/04	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
04/04	FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division	1-0	2-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Binga FC vs USFAS Bamako?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Binga FC win (40%). Probabilities: Binga FC 40%, draw 33%, USFAS Bamako 28%.

How many goals are expected in Binga FC vs USFAS Bamako?

The model expects 1.99 goals (Binga FC 1.11 · USFAS Bamako 0.88), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Binga FC vs USFAS Bamako?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.