Football · Mauritania Division 1 · 29/10, 18:00

Prediction: Nouakchott Kings vs AS Douanes Nouakchott

Team pages: Nouakchott Kings · AS Douanes Nouakchott

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Nouakchott Kings1.24

AS Douanes Nouakchott1.34

1X2

33% 29% 38%

Nouakchott Kings Draw AS Douanes Nouakchott

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nouakchott Kings 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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AS Douanes Nouakchott 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Nouakchott Kings 0–3–3 AS Douanes Nouakchott (6 last)

AS Douanes Nouakchott1-0Nouakchott Kings
Nouakchott Kings1-2AS Douanes Nouakchott
Nouakchott Kings1-1AS Douanes Nouakchott
AS Douanes Nouakchott0-0Nouakchott Kings
Nouakchott Kings1-1AS Douanes Nouakchott
AS Douanes Nouakchott3-1Nouakchott Kings

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nouakchott Kings 1483 · AS Douanes Nouakchott 1519

	Nouakchott Kings	Draw	AS Douanes Nouakchott
Our model	33%	29%	38%
Market	33%	30%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AS Douanes Nouakchott: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nouakchott Kings	AS Douanes Nouakchott
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.5	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.00

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
03:06 +2’	2.75	3.00	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nouakchott Kings 0–3–3 AS Douanes Nouakchott

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Mauritania Division 1	AS Douanes Nouakchott	1-0 HT 0-0	Nouakchott Kings
01/11/25 Mauritania Division 1	Nouakchott Kings	1-2 HT 0-1	AS Douanes Nouakchott
02/06/25 Mauritania Cup	Nouakchott Kings	1-1 HT 0-1	AS Douanes Nouakchott
06/03/25 Mauritania Division 1	AS Douanes Nouakchott	0-0 HT 0-0	Nouakchott Kings
29/10/24 Mauritania Division 1	Nouakchott Kings	1-1 HT 0-0	AS Douanes Nouakchott
18/05/24 Mauritania Cup	AS Douanes Nouakchott	3-1 HT 1-0	Nouakchott Kings

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nouakchott Kings	AS Douanes Nouakchott
FC Nouadhibou	3-2 W	2-2 D
Chemal FC	4-3 W	1-1 D
Nouakchott Academie	1-2 L	1-1 D
AS Pompier	0-0 D	2-1 W
FC Inter Nouakchott	2-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nouakchott Kings (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nouakchott Kings

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	ASC Snim Mauritania Division 1	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
23/05	Kaedi FC Mauritania Division 1	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
17/05	FC Nouadhibou Mauritania Division 1	2-2	3-2	3	4	W
12/05	Chemal FC Mauritania Division 1	0-1	4-3	7	3	W
07/05	Nouakchott Academie Mauritania Division 1	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
03/04	AS Pompier Mauritania Division 1	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
14/03	FC Inter Nouakchott Mauritania Division 1	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
08/03	ASC Tevragh Zeine Mauritania Division 1	2-1	2-2	3	1	D
02/03	ASC Police Mauritania Division 1	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
14/02	AS Douanes Nouakchott Mauritania Division 1	0-0	0-1	8	2	L

AS Douanes Nouakchott

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	ASC Gendrim Mauritania Division 1	0-1	1-2	12	6	L
19/05	ASC Gendrim Mauritania Division 1	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
04/05	FC Nouadhibou Mauritania Division 1	0-1	2-2	3	6	D
11/04	Chemal FC Mauritania Division 1	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
07/04	Nouakchott Academie Mauritania Division 1	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
07/03	AS Pompier Mauritania Division 1	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
01/03	FC Inter Nouakchott Mauritania Division 1	3-1	3-2	–	–	W
14/02	Nouakchott Kings Mauritania Division 1	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
23/01	ACS Ksar Mauritania Division 1	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
11/01	N'Zidane Mauritania Division 1	0-1	0-1	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nouakchott Kings vs AS Douanes Nouakchott?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AS Douanes Nouakchott win (38%). Probabilities: Nouakchott Kings 33%, draw 29%, AS Douanes Nouakchott 38%.

How many goals are expected in Nouakchott Kings vs AS Douanes Nouakchott?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Nouakchott Kings 1.24 · AS Douanes Nouakchott 1.34), with a 58% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Nouakchott Kings vs AS Douanes Nouakchott?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.