Football · England National League Division 1 Women · 28/10, 20:45

Prediction: Leeds (W) vs York (W)

Team pages: Leeds (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

Leeds (W)3.06

York (W)1.06

1X2

85% 9% 6%

Leeds (W) Draw York (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Leeds (W) 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWLDWW

York (W) 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLLDL

Head-to-head

Leeds (W) 5–0 York (W) (5 last)

York (W)1-5Leeds (W)
Leeds (W)2-0York (W)
Leeds (W)5-1York (W)
York (W)1-3Leeds (W)
Leeds (W)2-0York (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leeds (W) 1592 · York (W) 1415

	Leeds (W)	Draw	York (W)
Our model	77%	14%	9%
Market	93%	5%	3%

Estimated total (ours) 4.12 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leeds (W) (rating 1592 vs 1415).
H2H favours Leeds (W): 5-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leeds (W)	York (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.8	0.4 / 3.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.1 / 1.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	0/10/90%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.2	1.7 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	0.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.03

X21.00

234.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4)1.88

2 (+4)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.85

Under 4.51.95

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.03 → 1.03	Bet365 1.03
X	21.00 → 21.00	Bet365 21.00
2	34.00 → 34.00	Bet365 34.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:36 +34’	1.03	21.00	34.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Leeds (W) 5–0–0 York (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 England National League Division 1 Women	York (W)	1-5 HT 1-3	Leeds (W)
18/03/26 England National League Division 1 Women	Leeds (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	York (W)
21/03/24 England National League Division 1 Women	Leeds (W)	5-1 HT 3-0	York (W)
06/09/23 England National League Women	York (W)	1-3 HT 0-1	Leeds (W)
15/03/23 England National League Women	Leeds (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	York (W)

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leeds (W)	York (W)
Norton & Stockton Ancients (W)	2-0 W	1-1 D
Stockport (W)	1-1 D	1-3 L
Wythenshawe FC (W)	2-1 W	0-7 L
Doncaster (W)	1-1 D	0-2 L
Blackburn (W)	3-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Leeds (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leeds (W)

WDWDWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Norton & Stockton Ancients (W) England National League Division 1 Women	2-0	2-0	4	1	W
30/08	Chorley (W) England National League Division 1 Women	1-0	5-0	7	3	W
26/04	Stockport (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
12/04	Norton & Stockton Ancients (W) England National League Division 1 Women	1-1	1-2	8	4	L
05/04	Wythenshawe FC (W) England National League Division 1 Women	1-0	2-1	7	0	W
29/03	York (W) England National League Division 1 Women	3-1	5-1	6	0	W
22/03	Durham Cestria (W) England National League Division 1 Women	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
18/03	York (W) England National League Division 1 Women	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
11/03	Doncaster (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
08/03	Blackburn (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-1	3-1	10	3	W

York (W)

LDLLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Halifax (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-2	1-4	2	1	L
26/04	Blackburn (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
22/04	Huddersfield (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-4	0-5	1	0	L
19/04	Wythenshawe FC (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-2	0-7	1	0	L
12/04	Cheadle Town Stingers (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-3	0-6	3	0	L
29/03	Leeds (W) England National League Division 1 Women	1-3	1-5	3	0	L
22/03	Stockport (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-1	1-3	4	1	L
18/03	Leeds (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
18/02	Norton & Stockton Ancients (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-1	1-1	2	1	D
01/02	Doncaster (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-2	0-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leeds (W) vs York (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leeds (W) win (85%). Probabilities: Leeds (W) 85%, draw 9%, York (W) 6%.

How many goals are expected in Leeds (W) vs York (W)?

The model expects 4.12 goals (Leeds (W) 3.06 · York (W) 1.06), with a 54% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leeds (W) vs York (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.