Football · South Korea K League 1 · 22/11, 06:00
Prediction: Gwangju FC vs Bucheon
Team pages: Gwangju FC · Bucheon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
Gwangju FC1.83
Bucheon1.01
1X2
Gwangju FC
Draw
Bucheon
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Gwangju FC
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Bucheon
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gwangju FC
4–1–1
Bucheon
(6 last)
- Bucheon0-3Gwangju FC
- Bucheon0-0Gwangju FC
- Gwangju FC0-1Bucheon
- Bucheon1-2Gwangju FC
- Gwangju FC2-0Bucheon
- Bucheon2-3Gwangju FC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gwangju FC (rating 1481 vs 1413).
- H2H favours Gwangju FC: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gwangju FC | Bucheon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.9 | 0.8 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 2.1 | 1.1 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.2 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gwangju FC 4–1–1 Bucheon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/26 South Korea K League 1 | Bucheon | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Gwangju FC |
| 08/08/26 South Korea K League 1 | Bucheon | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 11/04/26 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Bucheon |
| 27/08/25 South Korea Cup | Bucheon | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 20/08/25 South Korea Cup | Gwangju FC | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Bucheon |
| 19/06/24 South Korea Cup | Bucheon | 2-3 HT 1-3 | Gwangju FC |
Standings · South Korea K League 1 · K-League 1 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeju SK | 35 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 41 | 39 | 48 |
| 2 | FC Anyang | 35 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 42 | 50 | 46 |
| 3 | Pohang Steelers | 35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 33 | 42 | 44 |
| 4 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 35 | 6 | 20 | 9 | 35 | 42 | 38 |
| 5 | Bucheon | 35 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 35 | 51 | 33 |
| 6 | Gwangju FC | 35 | 3 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 71 | 23 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gwangju FC | Bucheon |
|---|---|---|
| Jeju SK | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 2-3 L | 0-5 L |
| Ulsan HD | 4-3 W | 1-2 L |
| FC Anyang | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Gwangju FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gwangju FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Jeju SK South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 31/10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 24/10 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 18/10 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 11/10 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
2-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 20/09 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 13/09 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 09/09 | Jeju SK South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 30/08 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
1-3 | 2-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
Bucheon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 01/11 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 24/10 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/10 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 09/10 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 12/09 | Jeju SK South Korea K League 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 08/09 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gwangju FC vs Bucheon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gwangju FC win (56%). Probabilities: Gwangju FC 56%, draw 25%, Bucheon 19%.
How many goals are expected in Gwangju FC vs Bucheon?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Gwangju FC 1.83 · Bucheon 1.01), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Bucheon?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.