Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 04/11, 20:30

Prediction: Aguilas B vs UCAM Murcia CF B

Team pages: Aguilas B · UCAM Murcia CF B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Aguilas B1.31

UCAM Murcia CF B1.28

1X2

36% 28% 35%

Aguilas B Draw UCAM Murcia CF B

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Aguilas B 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

WDDDDDDWWW

UCAM Murcia CF B 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWDDLWWW

Head-to-head

Aguilas B 1–2–1 UCAM Murcia CF B (4 last)

Aguilas B2-2UCAM Murcia CF B
UCAM Murcia CF B1-1Aguilas B
Aguilas B3-0UCAM Murcia CF B
UCAM Murcia CF B3-2Aguilas B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aguilas B 1554 · UCAM Murcia CF B 1531

	Aguilas B	Draw	UCAM Murcia CF B
Our model	36%	29%	35%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aguilas B	UCAM Murcia CF B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/38/13%	44/44/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.5	1.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.6	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.20

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:56 +8’	2.45	3.20	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguilas B 1–2–1 UCAM Murcia CF B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Aguilas B	2-2 HT 1-2	UCAM Murcia CF B
11/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	UCAM Murcia CF B	1-1 HT 0-0	Aguilas B
23/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Aguilas B	3-0 HT 1-0	UCAM Murcia CF B
13/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 13	UCAM Murcia CF B	3-2 HT 2-1	Aguilas B

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santomera	8	7	1	0	21	7	22
2	San Javier CF	8	4	3	1	12	10	15
3	Atletico Santa Cruz	8	4	3	1	14	10	15
4	UCAM Murcia CF B	8	4	2	2	16	8	14
5	Aguilas B	8	3	5	0	11	6	14
6	Union Molinense CF	8	3	3	2	14	11	12
7	Bala Azul	8	3	3	2	10	8	12
8	UD Los Garres	8	3	2	3	9	8	11
9	At. Pulpileno	8	3	2	3	13	12	11
10	Olimpico Totana	8	3	2	3	11	11	11
11	Cotillas CD	8	3	1	4	10	11	10
12	Deportivo Maritimo	8	3	1	4	9	13	10
13	Alcantarilla FC	8	2	3	3	6	9	9
14	FC Cartagena B	8	2	2	4	12	15	8
15	SFC Minerva	8	2	2	4	4	9	8
16	CD Algar	8	2	0	6	5	16	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	8	1	2	5	10	18	5
18	Mazarron	8	1	1	6	12	17	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aguilas B	UCAM Murcia CF B
Cotillas CD	2-2 D	1-0 W
Alcantarilla FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Mazarron	3-2 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: UCAM Murcia CF B (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aguilas B

WDDDDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	CD Algar Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-0	–	–	W
24/10	UD Los Garres Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/10	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
04/10	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
26/09	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
20/09	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
13/09	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	2-2	6	6	D
06/09	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
10/05	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	2-2	5	5	D
03/05	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-2	1	10	W

UCAM Murcia CF B

DDLWDDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
24/10	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
11/10	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	5-1	4	3	W
04/10	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	San Javier CF Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
20/09	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-2	0	7	D
13/09	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	2-0	4-0	7	4	W
05/09	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	1-2	7	5	L
10/05	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	2-2	5	5	D
03/05	Muleno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguilas B vs UCAM Murcia CF B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aguilas B win (36%). Probabilities: Aguilas B 36%, draw 28%, UCAM Murcia CF B 35%.

How many goals are expected in Aguilas B vs UCAM Murcia CF B?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Aguilas B 1.31 · UCAM Murcia CF B 1.28), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aguilas B vs UCAM Murcia CF B?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.