Football · Ethiopia Premier League Women · 25/10, 12:00
Prediction: Hawassa City FC (W) vs Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Hawassa City FC (W)1.92
Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W)0.54
1X2
Hawassa City FC (W)
Draw
Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Hawassa City FC (W)
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W)
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hawassa City FC (W)
4–0
Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W)
(4 last)
- Hawassa City FC (W)4-0Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W)
- Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W)0-1Hawassa City FC (W)
- Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W)1-4Hawassa City FC (W)
- Hawassa City FC (W)6-2Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hawassa City FC (W) 1560 · Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W) 1470
| Hawassa City FC (W) | Draw | Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 22% | 9% |
| Market | 71% | 19% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hawassa City FC (W) (rating 1560 vs 1470).
- H2H favours Hawassa City FC (W): 4-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hawassa City FC (W) | Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.1 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.1 | 2 / 2.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hawassa City FC (W) 4–0–0 Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/26 Ethiopia Premier League Women | Hawassa City FC (W) | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W) |
| 10/09/25 Ethiopia Premier League Women | Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Hawassa City FC (W) |
| 09/04/25 Ethiopia Premier League Women | Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W) | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Hawassa City FC (W) |
| 03/12/24 Ethiopia Premier League Women | Hawassa City FC (W) | 6-2 HT 4-1 | Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W) |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hawassa City FC (W) | Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Bole Sub City (W) | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Ethiopia Nigd Bank (W) | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Yirga Chefe Bunna (W) | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Arba Minch (W) | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Sidama Bunna (W) | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Sheger Ketema (W) | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Lideta Sub City (W) | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Addis Ababa Ketema (W) | 3-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Hawassa City FC (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hawassa City FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05 | Bole Sub City (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 04/05 | Yirga Chefe Bunna (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 29/04 | Arba Minch (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 24/04 | Sidama Bunna (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 24/03 | Sheger Ketema (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 20/03 | Lideta Sub City (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/03 | Ethio Electric FC (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/03 | Dire Dawa (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 07/03 | Addis Ababa Ketema (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05 | Lideta Sub City (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Addis Ababa Ketema (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Mechal FC (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
0-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 29/04 | Adama Ketema (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 26/03 | Bole Sub City (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 22/03 | Yirga Chefe Bunna (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/03 | Arba Minch (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 12/03 | Sidama Bunna (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 07/03 | Sheger Ketema (W) Ethiopia Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hawassa City FC (W) vs Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hawassa City FC (W) win (70%). Probabilities: Hawassa City FC (W) 70%, draw 20%, Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W) 9%.
How many goals are expected in Hawassa City FC (W) vs Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W)?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Hawassa City FC (W) 1.92 · Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W) 0.54), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hawassa City FC (W) vs Bahir Dar Kenema FC (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.