Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 04/11, 20:00

Prediction: At. Pulpileno vs Deportivo Maritimo

Team pages: At. Pulpileno · Deportivo Maritimo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

At. Pulpileno1.69

Deportivo Maritimo0.93

1X2

54% 26% 20%

At. Pulpileno Draw Deportivo Maritimo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

At. Pulpileno 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDDWLLLW

Deportivo Maritimo 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWLWWD

Head-to-head

At. Pulpileno 2–1–1 Deportivo Maritimo (4 last)

At. Pulpileno1-0Deportivo Maritimo
Deportivo Maritimo2-1At. Pulpileno
At. Pulpileno0-0Deportivo Maritimo
Deportivo Maritimo0-3At. Pulpileno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · At. Pulpileno 1475 · Deportivo Maritimo 1500

	At. Pulpileno	Draw	Deportivo Maritimo
Our model	54%	26%	20%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours At. Pulpileno: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	At. Pulpileno	Deportivo Maritimo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/44/33%	43/29/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	1.5 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.4	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.65▼	Pinn 1.75 ★
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	3.80 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
12:00 +3’	1.80	3.40	3.80
23:21	1.65▼	3.50▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:35 +6’	1.75	3.43	4.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · At. Pulpileno 2–1–1 Deportivo Maritimo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	At. Pulpileno	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Maritimo
21/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Deportivo Maritimo	2-1 HT 1-1	At. Pulpileno
09/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	At. Pulpileno	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Maritimo
29/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 13	Deportivo Maritimo	0-3 HT 0-0	At. Pulpileno

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santomera	8	7	1	0	21	7	22
2	San Javier CF	8	4	3	1	12	10	15
3	Atletico Santa Cruz	8	4	3	1	14	10	15
4	UCAM Murcia CF B	8	4	2	2	16	8	14
5	Aguilas B	8	3	5	0	11	6	14
6	Union Molinense CF	8	3	3	2	14	11	12
7	Bala Azul	8	3	3	2	10	8	12
8	UD Los Garres	8	3	2	3	9	8	11
9	At. Pulpileno	8	3	2	3	13	12	11
10	Olimpico Totana	8	3	2	3	11	11	11
11	Cotillas CD	8	3	1	4	10	11	10
12	Deportivo Maritimo	8	3	1	4	9	13	10
13	Alcantarilla FC	8	2	3	3	6	9	9
14	FC Cartagena B	8	2	2	4	12	15	8
15	SFC Minerva	8	2	2	4	4	9	8
16	CD Algar	8	2	0	6	5	16	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	8	1	2	5	10	18	5
18	Mazarron	8	1	1	6	12	17	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	At. Pulpileno	Deportivo Maritimo
FC Cartagena B	3-2 W	2-1 W
Santomera	2-3 L	0-3 L
Bullas Deportivo	0-0 D	4-1 W
CD Algar	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: At. Pulpileno (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

At. Pulpileno

DLWDDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-2	3-2	1	8	W
24/10	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	2-3	6	4	L
10/10	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	2-3	2	11	L
04/10	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-3	3	8	L
27/09	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-1	10	6	W
20/09	Bullas Deportivo Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	–	0-0	4	3	D
05/09	CD Algar Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
10/05	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-1	2	9	L
03/05	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	6	5	D

Deportivo Maritimo

WWLLLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	San Javier CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
25/10	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
14/10	Bullas Deportivo Spain Tercera Group 13	4-0	4-1	2	5	W
10/10	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
27/09	CD Algar Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/09	UD Los Garres Spain Tercera Group 13	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-2	0-4	1	4	L
06/09	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
10/05	Yeclano B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-1	4	2	W
03/05	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	–	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in At. Pulpileno vs Deportivo Maritimo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a At. Pulpileno win (54%). Probabilities: At. Pulpileno 54%, draw 26%, Deportivo Maritimo 20%.

How many goals are expected in At. Pulpileno vs Deportivo Maritimo?

The model expects 2.62 goals (At. Pulpileno 1.69 · Deportivo Maritimo 0.93), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in At. Pulpileno vs Deportivo Maritimo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.