Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 24/10, 19:00

Prediction: Roosendaal vs VV Gemert

Team pages: Roosendaal · VV Gemert

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.86Total

Roosendaal2.1

VV Gemert1.76

1X2

46% 22% 32%

Roosendaal Draw VV Gemert

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Roosendaal 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLWLLD

VV Gemert 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDWDWLLW

Head-to-head

Roosendaal 0–2–0 VV Gemert (2 last)

Roosendaal3-3VV Gemert
VV Gemert2-2Roosendaal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Roosendaal 1463 · VV Gemert 1528

	Roosendaal	Draw	VV Gemert
Our model	45%	22%	32%
Market	46%	21%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VV Gemert (rating 1463 vs 1528).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Roosendaal	VV Gemert
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.3	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 1.3	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X4.20

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:49 +45’	1.95	4.20	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Roosendaal 0–2–0 VV Gemert

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Roosendaal	3-3 HT 2-2	VV Gemert
20/09/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VV Gemert	2-2 HT 1-2	Roosendaal

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Noordwijk	10	8	1	1	22	2	25
2	FC Lisse	10	8	1	1	22	8	25
3	Excelsior Maassluis	10	7	2	1	21	7	23
4	Rijnvogels	10	6	2	2	25	12	20
5	RKSV UDI '19	10	6	2	2	20	9	20
6	VV Dongen	10	5	1	4	24	21	16
7	Zwaluwen	10	5	1	4	11	14	16
8	SV Poortugaal	10	5	0	5	12	14	15
9	VV Goes	10	4	2	4	19	25	14
10	VV Gemert	10	3	4	3	14	17	13
11	Blauw Geel '38	10	3	3	4	14	14	12
12	Roosendaal	10	3	1	6	18	23	10
13	TOGB	10	2	3	5	16	24	9
14	Groene Ster	10	2	3	5	14	24	9
15	VV UNA	10	1	5	4	12	16	8
16	VVSB	10	2	2	6	13	21	8
17	Achilles Veen	10	2	0	8	8	22	6
18	EVV Echt	10	0	3	7	11	23	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Roosendaal	VV Gemert
Achilles Veen	3-0 W	2-0 W
Noordwijk	0-1 L	0-4 L
FC Lisse	0-1 L	0-2 L
Groene Ster	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Roosendaal (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Roosendaal

WLLWLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	EVV Echt Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-3	3-3	3	3	D
10/10	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-3	2-4	–	–	L
03/10	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-3	3-4	–	–	L
26/09	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	3-1	–	–	W
19/09	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
12/09	Blauw Geel '38 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
05/09	Achilles Veen Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	3-0	10	0	W
29/08	Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
16/08	Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	3-1	–	–	W

VV Gemert

DDLDWDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Achilles Veen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
10/10	Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
04/10	FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
27/09	Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-1	9	4	W
20/09	RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
12/09	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
06/09	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
30/08	VV Dongen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
23/08	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Roosendaal vs VV Gemert?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Roosendaal win (46%). Probabilities: Roosendaal 46%, draw 22%, VV Gemert 32%.

How many goals are expected in Roosendaal vs VV Gemert?

The model expects 3.86 goals (Roosendaal 2.1 · VV Gemert 1.76), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Roosendaal vs VV Gemert?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.