Football · Spain Tercera Group 6 · 04/11, 19:45

Prediction: Ontinyent vs Utiel

Team pages: Ontinyent · Utiel

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Ontinyent1.55

Utiel0.91

1X2

51% 27% 21%

Ontinyent Draw Utiel

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ontinyent 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLLDD

Utiel 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DWDDLDLLLD

Head-to-head

Ontinyent 4–1–1 Utiel (6 last)

Utiel1-3Ontinyent
Utiel1-2Ontinyent
Ontinyent0-0Utiel
Utiel0-1Ontinyent
Ontinyent2-0Utiel
Utiel1-0Ontinyent

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ontinyent 1474 · Utiel 1433

	Ontinyent	Draw	Utiel
Our model	51%	28%	21%
Market	52%	27%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ontinyent (rating 1474 vs 1433).
H2H favours Ontinyent: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ontinyent	Utiel
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	0.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	0/63/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.6	1.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.7 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.30

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:58 +8’	1.73	3.30	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ontinyent 4–1–1 Utiel

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/08/26 Club Friendly List	Utiel	1-3 HT 1-1	Ontinyent
01/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 6	Utiel	1-2 HT 0-0	Ontinyent
19/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Ontinyent	0-0 HT 0-0	Utiel
06/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Utiel	0-1 HT 0-0	Ontinyent
24/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 6	Ontinyent	2-0	Utiel
29/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 6	Utiel	1-0 HT 1-0	Ontinyent

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 6

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Villarreal C	9	8	0	1	15	6	24
2	Levante B	9	5	3	1	15	4	18
3	Hercules II	8	3	4	1	10	7	13
4	UD Vall De Uxo	8	3	4	1	9	5	13
5	Torrent C.F.	8	4	1	3	12	8	13
6	CD Roda	8	3	3	2	10	8	12
7	Acero	9	2	6	1	9	7	12
8	CD Bunol	8	3	2	3	7	9	11
9	Atletico Saguntino	8	3	2	3	13	12	11
10	Crevillente	9	2	5	2	10	10	11
11	Eldense B	9	2	4	3	8	8	10
12	Ontinyent	8	2	2	4	10	11	8
13	SC Torrevieja CF	9	2	2	5	8	15	8
14	Atzeneta	8	1	5	2	8	10	8
15	Athletic Torrellano	8	2	2	4	8	12	8
16	Jove Espanol	8	1	4	3	9	15	7
17	Soneja	8	2	1	5	8	15	7
18	Utiel	8	0	4	4	5	12	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ontinyent	Utiel
Crevillente	2-3 L	1-1 D
Villarreal C	1-2 L	0-1 L
Levante B	0-2 L	0-3 L
Atletico Saguntino	1-0 W	2-3 L
CD Roda	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ontinyent

LLLWLWLLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Jove Espanol Spain Tercera Group 6	1-1	2-2	4	11	D
25/10	SC Torrevieja CF Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/10	Crevillente Spain Tercera Group 6	1-2	2-3	12	8	L
04/10	Villarreal C Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-2	1	7	L
27/09	CD Bunol Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
20/09	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	0-2	2	9	L
13/09	Atletico Saguntino Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-0	1	9	W
06/09	CD Roda Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	1-2	4	8	L
09/05	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
02/05	Atzeneta Spain Tercera Group 6	–	1-2	–	–	L

Utiel

DWDDLDLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Crevillente Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
25/10	Villarreal C Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
09/10	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	0-3	7	6	L
04/10	Atletico Saguntino Spain Tercera Group 6	1-2	2-3	8	6	L
27/09	CD Roda Spain Tercera Group 6	1-1	1-1	10	1	D
20/09	Soneja Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	0-2	6	8	L
12/09	Acero Spain Tercera Group 6	–	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	UD Vall De Uxo Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
09/05	UD Vall De Uxo Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
02/05	UD Alzira Spain Tercera Group 6	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ontinyent vs Utiel?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ontinyent win (51%). Probabilities: Ontinyent 51%, draw 27%, Utiel 21%.

How many goals are expected in Ontinyent vs Utiel?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Ontinyent 1.55 · Utiel 0.91), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ontinyent vs Utiel?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.