Football · Costa Rica Primera Division · 25/10, 00:00
Prediction: Alajuelense vs Municipal Perez Zeledon
Team pages: Alajuelense · Municipal Perez Zeledon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.18Total
Alajuelense2.36
Municipal Perez Zeledon0.82
1X2
Alajuelense
Draw
Municipal Perez Zeledon
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Alajuelense
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Municipal Perez Zeledon
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alajuelense
3–2–1
Municipal Perez Zeledon
(6 last)
- Municipal Perez Zeledon1-1Alajuelense
- Alajuelense3-0Municipal Perez Zeledon
- Municipal Perez Zeledon1-1Alajuelense
- Alajuelense3-2Municipal Perez Zeledon
- Municipal Perez Zeledon2-1Alajuelense
- Municipal Perez Zeledon1-2Alajuelense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alajuelense 1556 · Municipal Perez Zeledon 1408
| Alajuelense | Draw | Municipal Perez Zeledon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Market | 71% | 19% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alajuelense (rating 1556 vs 1408).
- H2H favours Alajuelense: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alajuelense | Municipal Perez Zeledon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.8 | 2 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 5.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alajuelense 3–2–1 Municipal Perez Zeledon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/26 Costa Rica Primera Division | Municipal Perez Zeledon | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Alajuelense |
| 14/03/26 Costa Rica Primera Division | Alajuelense | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Municipal Perez Zeledon |
| 18/01/26 Costa Rica Primera Division | Municipal Perez Zeledon | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Alajuelense |
| 27/10/25 Costa Rica Primera Division | Alajuelense | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Municipal Perez Zeledon |
| 07/09/25 Costa Rica Primera Division | Municipal Perez Zeledon | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Alajuelense |
| 01/04/25 Costa Rica Primera Division | Municipal Perez Zeledon | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Alajuelense |
Standings · Costa Rica Primera Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 12 | 24 |
| 2 | Cartagines | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 21 |
| 4 | Alajuelense | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 19 |
| 5 | AD San Carlos | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 19 |
| 6 | Inter San Carlos | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 18 |
| 7 | Puntarenas | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 15 |
| 8 | Herediano | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 11 |
| 9 | Escorpiones de Belen FC | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 10 |
| 10 | Municipal Perez Zeledon | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 9 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alajuelense | Municipal Perez Zeledon |
|---|---|---|
| Inter San Carlos | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Herediano | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Puntarenas | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| AD San Carlos | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Alajuelense (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alajuelense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 15/10 | Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 11/10 | Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 21/09 | Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division |
2-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 14/09 | Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 24/08 | AD San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/08 | Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
Municipal Perez Zeledon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 15/10 | Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 10/10 | Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 12/09 | AD San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 10 | 8 | L |
| 06/09 | Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 30/08 | Alajuelense Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 12 | L |
| 17/08 | Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alajuelense vs Municipal Perez Zeledon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alajuelense win (71%). Probabilities: Alajuelense 71%, draw 19%, Municipal Perez Zeledon 10%.
How many goals are expected in Alajuelense vs Municipal Perez Zeledon?
The model expects 3.18 goals (Alajuelense 2.36 · Municipal Perez Zeledon 0.82), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Alajuelense vs Municipal Perez Zeledon?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.