Football · Brazil Serie B · 24/10, 21:00
Prediction: America MG vs Cuiaba
Team pages: America MG · Cuiaba
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.92Total
America MG0.76
Cuiaba1.16
1X2
America MG
Draw
Cuiaba
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
America MG
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Cuiaba
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
America MG
0–2–4
Cuiaba
(6 last)
- Cuiaba1-0America MG
- America MG1-1Cuiaba
- Cuiaba3-1America MG
- Cuiaba2-2America MG
- America MG1-2Cuiaba
- Cuiaba2-1America MG
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · America MG 1441 · Cuiaba 1511
| America MG | Draw | Cuiaba | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 33% | 44% |
| Market | 25% | 28% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cuiaba (rating 1441 vs 1511).
- H2H favours Cuiaba: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| America MG | Cuiaba | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.5 | 2.3 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · America MG 0–2–4 Cuiaba
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/26 Brazil Serie B | Cuiaba | 1-0 HT 0-0 | America MG |
| 16/11/25 Brazil Serie B | America MG | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Cuiaba |
| 24/07/25 Brazil Serie B | Cuiaba | 3-1 HT 1-1 | America MG |
| 16/09/23 Brazil Serie A | Cuiaba | 2-2 HT 2-2 | America MG |
| 07/05/23 Brazil Serie A | America MG | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Cuiaba |
| 29/09/22 Brazil Serie A | Cuiaba | 2-1 HT 1-0 | America MG |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 48 | 33 | 62 |
| 2 | Gremio Novorizontino | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 61 | 30 | 61 |
| 3 | EC Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 41 | 23 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 41 | 29 | 60 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 35 | 28 | 59 |
| 6 | Atletico GO | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 42 | 32 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 51 | 48 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 45 | 37 | 51 |
| 9 | Goias | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 34 | 40 | 49 |
| 10 | Operario PR | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 46 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 32 | 27 | 47 |
| 12 | Sao Bernardo SP | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 46 | 37 | 46 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 38 | 38 | 44 |
| 14 | Athletic Club MG | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 44 |
| 15 | Nautico | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 39 | 42 | 43 |
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 42 | 43 |
| 17 | Avai | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 33 | 43 | 37 |
| 18 | Londrina | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 43 | 49 | 32 |
| 19 | America MG | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 54 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 19 | 74 | 14 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | America MG | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|
| Criciuma | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Vila Nova | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Nautico | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| CRB | 1-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Ponte Preta | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
America MG
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/10 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 08/10 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 29/09 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/09 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 10/09 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
Cuiaba
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 11/10 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 13 | 3 | L |
| 08/10 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 27/09 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 22/09 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 09/09 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in America MG vs Cuiaba?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cuiaba win (46%). Probabilities: America MG 24%, draw 30%, Cuiaba 46%.
How many goals are expected in America MG vs Cuiaba?
The model expects 1.92 goals (America MG 0.76 · Cuiaba 1.16), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in America MG vs Cuiaba?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.