Football · Argentina Nacional B · 24/10, 22:00

Prediction: Deportivo Maipu vs CA Guemes

Team pages: Deportivo Maipu · CA Guemes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Deportivo Maipu1.87

CA Guemes0.39

1X2

74% 19% 7%

Deportivo Maipu Draw CA Guemes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 57%

Most likely score

1-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Maipu 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDDDWWDL

CA Guemes 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDDLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Maipu 0–3–3 CA Guemes (6 last)

CA Guemes1-0Deportivo Maipu
Deportivo Maipu1-1CA Guemes
CA Guemes1-1Deportivo Maipu
CA Guemes4-0Deportivo Maipu
Deportivo Maipu1-1CA Guemes
CA Guemes2-1Deportivo Maipu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Maipu 1514 · CA Guemes 1441

	Deportivo Maipu	Draw	CA Guemes
Our model	73%	21%	6%
Market	75%	17%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Maipu (rating 1514 vs 1441).
H2H favours CA Guemes: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Maipu	CA Guemes
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.8	1.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.50

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	5.50 → 5.75▲	Pinn 5.86 ★
2	11.00 → 13.00▲	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:15 +1’	1.22	5.50	11.00
10:13 +1’	1.20▼	5.50	13.00▲
15:32 +7’	1.22▲	5.75▲	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +707’	1.19	5.86	11.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Maipu 0–3–3 CA Guemes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 Argentina Nacional B	CA Guemes	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Maipu
27/07/25 Argentina Nacional B	Deportivo Maipu	1-1 HT 1-0	CA Guemes
23/03/25 Argentina Nacional B	CA Guemes	1-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo Maipu
07/09/24 Argentina Nacional B	CA Guemes	4-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Maipu
22/04/24 Argentina Nacional B	Deportivo Maipu	1-1 HT 0-0	CA Guemes
03/07/22 Argentina Nacional B	CA Guemes	2-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Maipu

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	34	16	14	4	33	15	62
2	Club Atletico Temperley	34	16	12	6	41	28	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	16	10	8	51	42	58
4	CA Atlanta	34	18	4	12	40	33	58
5	Gimnasia y Tiro	34	14	10	10	37	31	52
6	Ferrocarril Midland	34	14	9	11	40	29	51
7	CA Colegiales	34	14	8	12	35	31	50
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	13	9	12	40	33	48
9	San Martin SJ	34	12	11	11	36	34	47
10	San Martin de Tucuman	34	11	13	10	38	35	46
11	Atletico Rafaela	34	12	9	13	28	34	45
12	Almagro	34	11	8	15	31	41	41
13	Agropecuario	34	10	10	14	27	38	40
14	Quilmes	34	10	9	15	30	29	39
15	Patronato Parana	34	7	16	11	29	33	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	10	6	18	26	35	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	9	9	16	24	33	36
18	CA Guemes	34	6	8	20	25	57	26

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Maipu	CA Guemes
Chacarita Juniors	0-1 L	0-0 D
Almagro	2-2 D	2-1 W
Patronato Parana	0-0 D	0-2 L
CA Colegiales	0-1 L	0-1 L
Quilmes	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Maipu

WWLDDDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	6	0	L
11/10	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
05/10	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
27/09	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
20/09	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	5	0	D
12/09	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	2-2	2-2	2	2	D
06/09	Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
29/08	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
23/08	Quilmes Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
15/08	Godoy Cruz Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-1	5	3	W

CA Guemes

DDDLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
11/10	Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
04/10	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
26/09	Quilmes Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
20/09	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
12/09	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
06/09	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	0-2	1-3	7	1	L
30/08	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
24/08	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
19/08	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Maipu vs CA Guemes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Maipu win (74%). Probabilities: Deportivo Maipu 74%, draw 19%, CA Guemes 7%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Maipu vs CA Guemes?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Deportivo Maipu 1.87 · CA Guemes 0.39), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Maipu vs CA Guemes?

The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.