Football · Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso · 25/10, 02:00

Prediction: Real Madriz FC vs Deportivo Ocotal

Team pages: Deportivo Ocotal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Real Madriz FC1.64

Deportivo Ocotal1.64

1X2

37% 25% 37%

Real Madriz FC Draw Deportivo Ocotal

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Madriz FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDWLWWLD

Deportivo Ocotal 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWLDWWWD

Head-to-head

Real Madriz FC 1–2–3 Deportivo Ocotal (6 last)

Real Madriz FC3-3Deportivo Ocotal
Real Madriz FC0-1Deportivo Ocotal
Deportivo Ocotal2-0Real Madriz FC
Real Madriz FC1-1Deportivo Ocotal
Deportivo Ocotal2-1Real Madriz FC
Deportivo Ocotal1-3Real Madriz FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Madriz FC 1499 · Deportivo Ocotal 1554

	Real Madriz FC	Draw	Deportivo Ocotal
Our model	37%	25%	37%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Ocotal (rating 1499 vs 1554).
H2H favours Deportivo Ocotal: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Madriz FC	Deportivo Ocotal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	2.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.4	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.50

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:21 +8’	2.40	3.50	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madriz FC 1–2–3 Deportivo Ocotal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	Real Madriz FC	3-3	Deportivo Ocotal
10/04/22 Nicaragua Clausura	Real Madriz FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Ocotal
21/02/22 Nicaragua Clausura	Deportivo Ocotal	2-0 HT 2-0	Real Madriz FC
25/10/21 Nicaragua Apertura	Real Madriz FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Ocotal
29/08/21 Nicaragua Apertura	Deportivo Ocotal	2-1 HT 1-1	Real Madriz FC
26/08/21 Nicaragua Cup	Deportivo Ocotal	1-3 HT 0-2	Real Madriz FC

Standings · Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tigres de Chinandega	11	9	1	1	24	8	28
2	Deportivo Ocotal	11	6	4	1	27	15	22
3	Masachapa FC	11	6	4	1	21	11	22
4	Rio Blanco	11	6	2	3	21	10	20
5	Juventus Managua	11	5	4	2	14	8	19
6	Xilotepelt FC	11	6	1	4	17	14	19
7	Real Madriz FC	11	3	4	4	16	18	13
8	Bravos Primavera	11	3	4	4	8	13	13
9	CD Junior de Managua	11	3	2	6	13	24	11
10	FC Esteli	11	3	1	7	17	15	10
11	Matiguas FC	11	2	1	8	14	24	7
12	Deportivo El Cua	11	0	0	11	5	37	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Madriz FC	Deportivo Ocotal
Rio Blanco	0-1 L	3-3 D
Matiguas FC	3-2 W	4-1 W
Deportivo El Cua	4-2 W	5-0 W
Xilotepelt FC	0-3 L	3-1 W
CD Junior de Managua	1-0 W	1-1 D
Masachapa FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Tigres de Chinandega	2-3 L	0-2 L
Juventus Managua	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Ocotal (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Madriz FC

DDLDWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Bravos Primavera Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	–	0-0	–	–	D
11/10	Rio Blanco Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
04/10	Matiguas FC Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	2-1	3-2	8	4	W
27/09	Deportivo El Cua Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	–	4-2	–	–	W
20/09	Xilotepelt FC Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	0-0	0-3	3	1	L
13/09	CD Junior de Managua Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
09/09	Masachapa FC Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Tigres de Chinandega Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	–	2-3	–	–	L
30/08	Juventus Managua Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
23/08	Deportivo Ocotal Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	–	3-3	–	–	D

Deportivo Ocotal

DWDWLDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Rio Blanco Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	2-1	3-3	3	5	D
11/10	Matiguas FC Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	–	4-1	–	–	W
02/10	Deportivo El Cua Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	–	5-0	–	–	W
27/09	Xilotepelt FC Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	1-2	3-1	4	4	W
22/09	CD Junior de Managua Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
17/09	Tigres de Chinandega Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/09	Masachapa FC Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	–	2-1	–	–	W
06/09	Juventus Managua Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	–	1-1	–	–	D
30/08	FC Esteli Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	–	2-1	–	–	W
23/08	Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Liga de Ascenso	–	3-3	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Madriz FC vs Deportivo Ocotal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Madriz FC win (37%). Probabilities: Real Madriz FC 37%, draw 25%, Deportivo Ocotal 37%.

How many goals are expected in Real Madriz FC vs Deportivo Ocotal?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Real Madriz FC 1.64 · Deportivo Ocotal 1.64), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Madriz FC vs Deportivo Ocotal?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.