Football · Romania Liga I · 24/10, 19:00

Prediction: ACS Sepsi vs CS U Craiova

Team pages: ACS Sepsi · CS U Craiova

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

ACS Sepsi0.67

CS U Craiova1.52

1X2

17% 25% 58%

ACS Sepsi Draw CS U Craiova

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-1 16%

Recent form · 10 last

ACS Sepsi 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDDWLWLLD

CS U Craiova 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWWWWW

Head-to-head

ACS Sepsi 0–6 CS U Craiova (6 last)

CS U Craiova2-1ACS Sepsi
ACS Sepsi1-2CS U Craiova
CS U Craiova3-2ACS Sepsi
ACS Sepsi1-3CS U Craiova
ACS Sepsi1-3CS U Craiova
CS U Craiova2-1ACS Sepsi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ACS Sepsi 1473 · CS U Craiova 1595

	ACS Sepsi	Draw	CS U Craiova
Our model	15%	28%	57%
Market	18%	23%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CS U Craiova (rating 1473 vs 1595).
H2H favours CS U Craiova: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ACS Sepsi	CS U Craiova
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.2	2.2 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.5	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.90

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.88

2 (-1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:50 +29’	5.00	3.90	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ACS Sepsi 0–0–6 CS U Craiova

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/12/24 Romania Liga I	CS U Craiova	2-1 HT 1-1	ACS Sepsi
11/08/24 Romania Liga I	ACS Sepsi	1-2 HT 0-1	CS U Craiova
18/05/24 Romania Liga I	CS U Craiova	3-2 HT 0-1	ACS Sepsi
21/04/24 Romania Liga I	ACS Sepsi	1-3 HT 1-2	CS U Craiova
04/02/24 Romania Liga I	ACS Sepsi	1-3 HT 1-1	CS U Craiova
16/09/23 Romania Liga I	CS U Craiova	2-1 HT 2-1	ACS Sepsi

Standings · Romania Liga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Bucharest	12	9	2	1	27	7	29
2	Rapid Bucuresti	12	8	3	1	20	9	27
3	CS U Craiova	12	8	2	2	27	9	26
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	12	6	2	4	15	16	20
5	Universitatea Cluj	12	6	1	5	22	20	19
6	FCSB	12	5	3	4	16	18	18
7	Farul Constanta	12	4	5	3	17	17	17
8	CS Corvinul Hunedoara	12	4	4	4	14	13	16
9	CFR Cluj	12	5	1	6	17	18	16
10	ACS UTA Batrana Doamna	12	4	3	5	15	17	15
11	FC Botosani	12	3	5	4	16	14	14
12	ACS Sepsi	12	3	5	4	8	13	14
13	FC Arges Pitesti	12	3	3	6	8	13	12
14	Otelul Galati	12	2	5	5	12	17	11
15	FC Voluntari	12	2	2	8	12	27	8
16	FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc	12	0	2	10	7	25	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ACS Sepsi	CS U Craiova
Petrolul Ploiesti	1-1 D	4-0 W
FC Arges Pitesti	1-0 W	0-1 L
Farul Constanta	1-1 D	2-0 W
FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc	0-0 D	1-0 W
FCSB	0-0 D	5-0 W
CS Corvinul Hunedoara	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 5 D 0 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CS U Craiova (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ACS Sepsi

DDDDWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Petrolul Ploiesti Romania Liga I	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
09/10	Dinamo Bucharest Romania Liga I	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
18/09	ACS UTA Batrana Doamna Romania Liga I	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
12/09	CFR Cluj Romania Liga I	0-1	3-1	1	1	W
05/09	FC Botosani Romania Liga I	0-4	0-5	2	3	L
29/08	FC Arges Pitesti Romania Liga I	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
23/08	Farul Constanta Romania Liga I	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
15/08	FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc Romania Liga I	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
10/08	FCSB Romania Liga I	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
02/08	CS Corvinul Hunedoara Romania Liga I	1-1	1-1	2	3	D

CS U Craiova

WLDWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Farul Constanta Romania Liga I	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
11/10	FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc Romania Liga I	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
19/09	FCSB Romania Liga I	2-0	5-0	5	1	W
13/09	CS Corvinul Hunedoara Romania Liga I	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
07/09	Universitatea Cluj Romania Liga I	0-0	4-0	5	2	W
31/08	Rapid Bucuresti Romania Liga I	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
23/08	FC Voluntari Romania Liga I	1-0	3-1	8	4	W
16/08	Otelul Galati Romania Liga I	0-0	1-1	1	8	D
09/08	FC Arges Pitesti Romania Liga I	0-1	0-1	12	6	L
01/08	Petrolul Ploiesti Romania Liga I	2-0	4-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ACS Sepsi vs CS U Craiova?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CS U Craiova win (58%). Probabilities: ACS Sepsi 17%, draw 25%, CS U Craiova 58%.

How many goals are expected in ACS Sepsi vs CS U Craiova?

The model expects 2.19 goals (ACS Sepsi 0.67 · CS U Craiova 1.52), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ACS Sepsi vs CS U Craiova?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.