Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 25/10, 22:00

Prediction: LDU Quito vs Macara

Team pages: LDU Quito · Macara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

LDU Quito1.55

Macara0.71

1X2

57% 27% 16%

LDU Quito Draw Macara

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

LDU Quito 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWDWWD

Macara 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

LDU Quito 3–1–2 Macara (6 last)

Macara1-0LDU Quito
LDU Quito0-2Macara
LDU Quito1-1Macara
Macara0-1LDU Quito
Macara0-4LDU Quito
LDU Quito2-1Macara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LDU Quito 1528 · Macara 1586

	LDU Quito	Draw	Macara
Our model	56%	28%	16%
Market	57%	26%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macara (rating 1528 vs 1586).
H2H favours LDU Quito: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LDU Quito	Macara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.8	2.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.60

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.65
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.70 ★
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +2’	1.61	3.60	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:03 +1875’	1.64	3.75	5.09
12:02 +19’	1.65▲	3.74▼	5.05▼
22:36 +15’	1.65▲	3.70▼	5.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LDU Quito 3–1–2 Macara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Macara	1-0 HT 1-0	LDU Quito
01/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	0-2 HT 0-1	Macara
30/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	1-1 HT 1-0	Macara
10/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Macara	0-1 HT 0-1	LDU Quito
04/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Macara	0-4 HT 0-3	LDU Quito
05/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	2-1 HT 2-1	Macara

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	32	25	2	5	75	35	77
2	Macara	33	18	6	9	45	34	60
3	LDU Quito	33	15	8	10	36	27	53
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	33	14	10	9	53	31	52
5	SD Aucas	33	14	9	10	36	33	51
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	32	11	12	9	34	28	45

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LDU Quito	Macara
SD Aucas	1-1 D	2-1 W
Barcelona Guayaquil	2-1 W	2-1 W
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	2-1 W	1-0 W
Emelec	2-0 W	1-0 W
Independiente del Valle	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Macara (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LDU Quito

LWWLDWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
11/10	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	8	8	W
21/09	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
13/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
05/09	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	3-1	6	2	W
02/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
29/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
24/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	10	W
08/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	7	1	L

Macara

WDLWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
11/10	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
19/09	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	1	5	W
13/09	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
06/09	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-3	1-3	6	1	L
02/09	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	4-3	3	4	W
30/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
25/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
18/08	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
09/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LDU Quito vs Macara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LDU Quito win (57%). Probabilities: LDU Quito 57%, draw 27%, Macara 16%.

How many goals are expected in LDU Quito vs Macara?

The model expects 2.25 goals (LDU Quito 1.55 · Macara 0.71), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in LDU Quito vs Macara?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.