Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Stanway Rovers vs Cray Wanderers

Team pages: Stanway Rovers · Cray Wanderers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Stanway Rovers1.23

Cray Wanderers1.83

1X2

25% 24% 51%

Stanway Rovers Draw Cray Wanderers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Stanway Rovers 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Cray Wanderers 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWWLDDWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stanway Rovers 1419 · Cray Wanderers 1553

	Stanway Rovers	Draw	Cray Wanderers
Our model	25%	25%	50%
Market	26%	23%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cray Wanderers (rating 1419 vs 1553).
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stanway Rovers	Cray Wanderers
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.5	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	2 / 1	1.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	33/0/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 6	2.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.5	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.90

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:22 +17’	3.50	3.90	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	12	9	1	2	33	16	28
2	Welling	13	9	0	4	26	15	27
3	Lewes	13	8	2	3	20	14	26
4	Dartford	13	8	0	5	19	17	24
5	Ramsgate	13	7	1	5	29	17	22
6	Eastbourne Borough	11	7	1	3	21	11	22
7	Carshalton Ath	15	7	1	7	23	28	22
8	Chatham Town	12	7	0	5	26	16	21
9	Burgess Hill Town	12	5	5	2	23	17	20
10	Wingate & Finchley	12	6	2	4	24	23	20
11	Dulwich	13	5	3	5	21	21	18
12	St Albans	9	5	2	2	18	13	17
13	Leatherhead	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
14	AFC Whyteleafe	14	4	3	7	22	25	15
15	Cheshunt	13	3	6	4	12	18	15
16	Aveley	13	4	2	7	20	21	14
17	Maldon Tiptree FC	15	4	2	9	19	36	14
18	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
19	Brentwood Town	11	4	0	7	18	19	12
20	Three Bridges	13	2	3	8	23	36	9
21	Stanway Rovers	13	2	1	10	12	32	7
22	Whitehawk	13	1	3	9	12	32	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stanway Rovers	Cray Wanderers
Cheshunt	3-0 W	1-1 D
Wingate & Finchley	1-4 L	1-1 D
Enfield Town	1-2 L	2-3 L
St Albans	1-4 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cray Wanderers (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Stanway Rovers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
20/10	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
17/10	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
10/10	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
06/10	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
26/09	Faversham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
15/09	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	3-1	3-2	4	2	W
12/09	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
31/08	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L

Cray Wanderers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
29/09	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	3-0	5-1	4	4	W
26/09	Cheshunt England FA Trophy	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/09	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	3-3	7	3	D
12/09	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
31/08	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
22/08	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
08/08	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stanway Rovers vs Cray Wanderers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cray Wanderers win (51%). Probabilities: Stanway Rovers 25%, draw 24%, Cray Wanderers 51%.

How many goals are expected in Stanway Rovers vs Cray Wanderers?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Stanway Rovers 1.23 · Cray Wanderers 1.83), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Stanway Rovers vs Cray Wanderers?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.