Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Leatherhead vs Wingate & Finchley

Team pages: Leatherhead · Wingate & Finchley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

Leatherhead2.1

Wingate & Finchley1.47

1X2

51% 23% 26%

Leatherhead Draw Wingate & Finchley

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Leatherhead 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWDDDL

Wingate & Finchley 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Leatherhead 2–1–3 Wingate & Finchley (6 last)

Wingate & Finchley1-1Leatherhead
Leatherhead1-2Wingate & Finchley
Wingate & Finchley1-2Leatherhead
Leatherhead2-1Wingate & Finchley
Wingate & Finchley1-0Leatherhead
Wingate & Finchley3-1Leatherhead

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leatherhead 1506 · Wingate & Finchley 1555

	Leatherhead	Draw	Wingate & Finchley
Our model	51%	23%	26%
Market	51%	23%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wingate & Finchley (rating 1506 vs 1555).
H2H favours Wingate & Finchley: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leatherhead	Wingate & Finchley
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	2.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 6	1.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 1	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.80

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
14:24 +2’	1.75	3.80	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leatherhead 2–1–3 Wingate & Finchley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/04/22 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	1-1	Leatherhead
21/08/21 England Isthmian Premier Division	Leatherhead	1-2	Wingate & Finchley
07/01/20 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	1-2 HT 1-0	Leatherhead
02/02/19 England Isthmian Premier Division	Leatherhead	2-1	Wingate & Finchley
13/10/18 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	1-0	Leatherhead
03/02/18 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	3-1	Leatherhead

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	12	9	1	2	33	16	28
2	Welling	13	9	0	4	26	15	27
3	Lewes	13	8	2	3	20	14	26
4	Dartford	13	8	0	5	19	17	24
5	Ramsgate	13	7	1	5	29	17	22
6	Eastbourne Borough	11	7	1	3	21	11	22
7	Carshalton Ath	15	7	1	7	23	28	22
8	Chatham Town	12	7	0	5	26	16	21
9	Burgess Hill Town	12	5	5	2	23	17	20
10	Wingate & Finchley	12	6	2	4	24	23	20
11	Dulwich	13	5	3	5	21	21	18
12	St Albans	9	5	2	2	18	13	17
13	Leatherhead	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
14	AFC Whyteleafe	14	4	3	7	22	25	15
15	Cheshunt	13	3	6	4	12	18	15
16	Aveley	13	4	2	7	20	21	14
17	Maldon Tiptree FC	15	4	2	9	19	36	14
18	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
19	Brentwood Town	11	4	0	7	18	19	12
20	Three Bridges	13	2	3	8	23	36	9
21	Stanway Rovers	13	2	1	10	12	32	7
22	Whitehawk	13	1	3	9	12	32	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leatherhead	Wingate & Finchley
Ramsgate	2-2 D	2-0 W
Aveley	2-1 W	4-3 W
Dulwich	2-3 L	1-0 W
Welling	4-1 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Wingate & Finchley (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Leatherhead

WDLWLWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
22/09	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-3	–	–	D
15/09	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
12/09	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
31/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/08	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
15/08	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W

Wingate & Finchley

WWLLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	2-1	4-2	7	2	W
17/10	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
13/10	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
10/10	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
26/09	Real Bedford England FA Trophy	–	3-0	–	–	W
14/09	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	2-1	4-3	1	6	W
12/09	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
31/08	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-4	4	1	L
29/08	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leatherhead vs Wingate & Finchley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leatherhead win (51%). Probabilities: Leatherhead 51%, draw 23%, Wingate & Finchley 26%.

How many goals are expected in Leatherhead vs Wingate & Finchley?

The model expects 3.57 goals (Leatherhead 2.1 · Wingate & Finchley 1.47), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Leatherhead vs Wingate & Finchley?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.