Football · England National League Division 1 Women · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: Worcester City (W) vs Notts County (W)

Team pages: Worcester City (W) · Notts County (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Worcester City (W)1.81

Notts County (W)1.69

1X2

41% 24% 36%

Worcester City (W) Draw Notts County (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Worcester City (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLWWLL

Notts County (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLDWW

Head-to-head

Worcester City (W) 2–1 Notts County (W) (3 last)

Worcester City (W)2-1Notts County (W)
Notts County (W)0-4Worcester City (W)
Notts County (W)5-2Worcester City (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Worcester City (W) 1473 · Notts County (W) 1462

	Worcester City (W)	Draw	Notts County (W)
Our model	40%	24%	36%
Market	41%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Worcester City (W): 2-0-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Worcester City (W)	Notts County (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	1.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	1.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.80

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:50 +13’	2.20	3.80	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Worcester City (W) 2–0–1 Notts County (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 England National League Division 1 Women	Worcester City (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	Notts County (W)
12/10/25 England National League Division 1 Women	Notts County (W)	0-4 HT 0-2	Worcester City (W)
23/02/25 England National League Division 1 Women	Notts County (W)	5-2 HT 2-1	Worcester City (W)

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Worcester City (W)	Notts County (W)
Barnsley FC (W)	1-5 L	1-1 D
Northampton (W)	1-3 L	1-2 L
Boldmere St Michaels (W)	1-4 L	0-2 L
Sutton Coldfield (W)	1-1 D	2-0 W
Kidderminster (W)	1-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Notts County (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Worcester City (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Barnsley FC (W) England National League Division 1 Women	1-3	1-5	0	6	L
12/04	Northampton (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-0	1-3	3	2	L
29/03	Sheffield FC (W) England National League Division 1 Women	1-1	2-1	9	2	W
22/02	Notts County (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-0	2-1	7	0	W
25/01	Boldmere St Michaels (W) England National League Division 1 Women	1-3	1-4	4	1	L
11/01	Northampton (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
04/01	Sutton Coldfield (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
14/12	Barnsley FC (W) England National League Division 1 Women	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
16/11	Sheffield FC (W) England National League Division 1 Women	1-1	1-4	7	0	L
29/10	Kidderminster (W) England National League Division 1 Women	1-0	1-0	5	1	W

Notts County (W)

LLWLLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Wythenshawe FC (W) England National League Division 1 Women	2-1	3-2	6	3	W
23/08	Kidderminster (W) England National League Division 1 Women	2-0	3-0	7	0	W
12/04	Barnsley FC (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-1	1-1	7	0	D
29/03	Leafield Athletic (W) England National League Division 1 Women	1-3	2-4	4	2	L
22/03	Northampton (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
08/03	Boldmere St Michaels (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
22/02	Worcester City (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-0	1-2	5	0	L
25/01	Sutton Coldfield (W) England National League Division 1 Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
18/01	Peterborough (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
04/01	Stourbridge (W) England National League Division 1 Women	2-3	3-5	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Worcester City (W) vs Notts County (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Worcester City (W) win (41%). Probabilities: Worcester City (W) 41%, draw 24%, Notts County (W) 36%.

How many goals are expected in Worcester City (W) vs Notts County (W)?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Worcester City (W) 1.81 · Notts County (W) 1.69), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Worcester City (W) vs Notts County (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.