Prediction: Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar FC
Team pages: Nairobi United
- Nairobi United1-1Mara Sugar FC
- Mara Sugar FC0-1Nairobi United
- Nairobi United1-1Mara Sugar FC
- Mara Sugar FC1-0Nairobi United
- Nairobi United0-2Mara Sugar FC
| Nairobi United | Draw | Mara Sugar FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 33% | 27% |
| Market | 41% | 31% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Mara Sugar FC: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nairobi United | Mara Sugar FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 25/63/13% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.4 | 4.3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nairobi United 1–2–2 Mara Sugar FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/26 Kenya Premier League | Nairobi United | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Mara Sugar FC |
| 01/10/25 Kenya Premier League | Mara Sugar FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Nairobi United |
| 01/06/25 Kenya Cup | Nairobi United | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Mara Sugar FC |
| 02/06/24 Kenya Super League | Mara Sugar FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Nairobi United |
| 16/12/23 Kenya Super League | Nairobi United | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Mara Sugar FC |
Standings · Kenya Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gor Mahia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Shabana FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | 3K FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | KCB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Mara Sugar FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Nairobi United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Administration Police FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Migori Youth | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | APS Bomet | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Mathare United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | AFC Leopards | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Bandari FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Mombasa United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Posta Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Muranga Seal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | Ulinzi Stars | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nairobi United | Mara Sugar FC |
|---|---|---|
| Gor Mahia | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Posta Rangers | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Kariobangi Sharks | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Tusker | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Mathare United | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Muranga Seal | 4-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Shabana FC | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Nairobi United (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nairobi United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | KCB Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 06/05 | Tusker Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Mathare United Kenya Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
3-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 08/04 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 05/04 | Shabana FC Kenya Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
Mara Sugar FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | 3K FC Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/05 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Mathare United Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Shabana FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 24/04 | Tusker Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 06/04 | Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 01/04 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nairobi United win (40%). Probabilities: Nairobi United 40%, draw 32%, Mara Sugar FC 28%.
How many goals are expected in Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar FC?
The model expects 2.03 goals (Nairobi United 1.14 · Mara Sugar FC 0.89), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.