Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Leighton Town vs Racing Club Warwick

Team pages: Leighton Town · Racing Club Warwick

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Leighton Town1.38

Racing Club Warwick1.81

1X2

29% 24% 47%

Leighton Town Draw Racing Club Warwick

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Leighton Town 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLL

Racing Club Warwick 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLLDWDWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leighton Town 1381 · Racing Club Warwick 1513

	Leighton Town	Draw	Racing Club Warwick
Our model	28%	25%	47%
Market	29%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Racing Club Warwick (rating 1381 vs 1513).
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leighton Town	Racing Club Warwick
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.4	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.7	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/0/86%	33/17/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.4	1.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.75

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:17 +4’	3.10	3.75	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	12	10	2	0	36	13	32
2	Bury Town	13	10	1	2	23	15	31
3	Bromsgrove	12	8	3	1	21	11	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	9	0	5	30	21	27
5	Needham Market	13	7	2	4	28	19	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	25	18	23
7	Kettering	12	6	4	2	22	9	22
8	Alvechurch	11	6	3	2	18	6	21
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	20	16	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	4	5	4	20	17	17
11	Halesowen	11	5	2	4	13	16	17
12	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	14	16	16
13	Redditch	11	3	5	3	17	16	14
14	Banbury	13	3	4	6	16	23	13
15	Leiston	11	3	3	5	17	21	12
16	Stratford Town	12	2	5	5	12	20	11
17	Leamington	13	2	4	7	17	23	10
18	Bishop's Stortford	12	3	1	8	14	22	10
19	Hitchin	13	2	4	7	11	19	10
20	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	8	16	7
21	Leighton Town	12	1	2	9	13	26	5
22	Stamford	13	0	1	12	3	35	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leighton Town	Racing Club Warwick
Stourbridge	1-2 L	1-0 W
Hitchin	0-1 L	1-1 D
Halesowen	2-4 L	5-1 W
Anstey Nomads	0-2 L	2-3 L
Worcester City	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Racing Club Warwick (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leighton Town

WLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
17/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	0-3	4	3	L
10/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	2-4	4	4	L
29/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
12/09	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-4	–	–	L
31/08	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	2-3	4	5	L
29/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	2-3	8	2	L
22/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
15/08	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-1	6	0	W

Racing Club Warwick

DLDLLDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	5-0	5-1	4	4	W
17/10	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-2	–	–	W
10/10	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
03/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
29/09	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-2	5	1	D
21/09	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-2	9	2	L
12/09	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-3	2	7	L
31/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
29/08	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leighton Town vs Racing Club Warwick?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Racing Club Warwick win (47%). Probabilities: Leighton Town 29%, draw 24%, Racing Club Warwick 47%.

How many goals are expected in Leighton Town vs Racing Club Warwick?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Leighton Town 1.38 · Racing Club Warwick 1.81), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Leighton Town vs Racing Club Warwick?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.