Football · England National League North · 17/11, 20:45

Prediction: South Shields vs Harborough Town

Team pages: South Shields · Harborough Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

South Shields2.19

Harborough Town1.18

1X2

59% 22% 19%

South Shields Draw Harborough Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

South Shields 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWWWW

Harborough Town 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLWDLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South Shields 1577 · Harborough Town 1465

	South Shields	Draw	Harborough Town
Our model	59%	22%	19%
Market	59%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South Shields (rating 1577 vs 1465).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South Shields	Harborough Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.7	0.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.5	2.6 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.10

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.50▼	Bet365 1.50
X	3.90 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	4.20 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:24 +1’	1.60	3.90	4.20
16:47 +5’	1.50▼	4.10▲	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Shields	15	10	2	3	30	20	32
2	Hereford FC	16	9	3	4	28	14	30
3	Oxford City	15	8	4	3	27	12	28
4	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	21	11	27
5	Hednesford	16	8	3	5	30	22	27
6	Kings Lynn Town	16	8	3	5	27	21	27
7	Buxton	16	8	3	5	32	27	27
8	Chester	15	8	2	5	18	14	26
9	Morecambe	16	7	3	6	25	20	24
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	17	19	22
11	AFC Telford	16	6	4	6	18	22	22
12	Spalding United	15	6	3	6	20	17	21
13	Chorley	15	6	2	7	24	25	20
14	Worksop	15	6	2	7	20	21	20
15	Hebburn Town	15	5	5	5	20	28	20
16	Marine	15	6	1	8	20	20	19
17	Merthyr Town	16	4	7	5	22	23	19
18	Brackley	16	5	4	7	18	27	19
19	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	13	17	17
20	Scarborough Athletic	16	4	4	8	22	25	16
21	Radcliffe FC	15	5	1	9	19	27	16
22	Darlington 1883	16	3	3	10	20	29	12
23	Southport	15	2	4	9	15	30	10
24	Spennymoor Town	15	2	4	9	14	29	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South Shields	Harborough Town
Southport	5-1 W	1-0 W
Macclesfield	3-4 L	0-1 L
Brackley	2-3 L	0-1 L
Buxton	4-0 W	0-3 L
Hereford FC	0-6 L	0-3 L
Marine	2-1 W	2-1 W
Hednesford	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: South Shields (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

South Shields

WWLWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Southport England National League North	4-0	5-1	6	1	W
31/10	Oxford City England National League North	3-1	3-1	0	7	W
27/10	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
24/10	Chester England National League North	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
10/10	Macclesfield England National League North	3-2	3-4	4	6	L
29/09	Brackley England National League North	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
26/09	Buxton England National League North	2-0	4-0	6	7	W
12/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
08/09	Marine England National League North	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
05/09	Hednesford England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	4	W

Harborough Town

LWLLDLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
27/10	Buxton England National League North	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
24/10	Worksop England National League North	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
10/10	Southport England National League North	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
26/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
12/09	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
08/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	0-3	5	6	L
05/09	Brackley England National League North	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
31/08	Marine England National League North	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
28/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-0	1-2	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South Shields vs Harborough Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a South Shields win (59%). Probabilities: South Shields 59%, draw 22%, Harborough Town 19%.

How many goals are expected in South Shields vs Harborough Town?

The model expects 3.37 goals (South Shields 2.19 · Harborough Town 1.18), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in South Shields vs Harborough Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.