Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 21/11, 20:00

Prediction: Real Tomayapo vs Nacional Potosi

Team pages: Real Tomayapo · Nacional Potosi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Real Tomayapo1.48

Nacional Potosi1.48

1X2

37% 27% 37%

Real Tomayapo Draw Nacional Potosi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Tomayapo 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLDWLLW

Nacional Potosi 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLDLWDD

Head-to-head

Real Tomayapo 0–2–4 Nacional Potosi (6 last)

Real Tomayapo1-1Nacional Potosi
Nacional Potosi5-1Real Tomayapo
Nacional Potosi4-1Real Tomayapo
Nacional Potosi1-0Real Tomayapo
Real Tomayapo0-1Nacional Potosi
Nacional Potosi1-1Real Tomayapo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Tomayapo 1446 · Nacional Potosi 1559

	Real Tomayapo	Draw	Nacional Potosi
Our model	37%	27%	37%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional Potosi (rating 1446 vs 1559).
H2H favours Nacional Potosi: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Tomayapo	Nacional Potosi
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	3.4 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.50

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +19’	2.50	3.50	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Tomayapo 0–2–4 Nacional Potosi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/10/26 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Real Tomayapo	1-1 HT 0-0	Nacional Potosi
04/09/26 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Nacional Potosi	5-1 HT 1-0	Real Tomayapo
27/07/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Nacional Potosi	4-1 HT 3-1	Real Tomayapo
14/12/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Nacional Potosi	1-0 HT 0-0	Real Tomayapo
23/07/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Real Tomayapo	0-1 HT 0-0	Nacional Potosi
23/03/25 America Friendlies	Nacional Potosi	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Tomayapo

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	25	19	3	3	61	24	60
2	Always Ready	25	17	6	2	61	19	57
3	The Strongest	25	14	6	5	46	29	48
4	Oriente Petrolero	25	12	5	8	42	30	41
5	Real Potosi	25	10	10	5	32	18	40
6	Club Aurora	25	8	12	5	36	32	36
7	Nacional Potosi	25	9	6	10	37	33	33
8	Guabira	25	9	6	10	40	50	33
9	Real Oruro	25	9	4	12	41	58	31
10	Blooming	25	7	10	8	33	27	31
11	Independiente Petrolero	25	8	6	11	32	42	30
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	25	8	3	14	28	50	27
13	Real Tomayapo	25	6	5	14	19	42	23
14	Universitario De Vinto	25	6	4	15	32	49	22
15	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	25	6	2	17	37	57	20
16	GV San Jose	25	4	8	13	30	47	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Tomayapo	Nacional Potosi
Independiente Petrolero	2-0 W	3-0 W
Blooming	1-2 L	2-1 W
Club Aurora	0-1 L	2-2 D
GV San Jose	1-0 W	3-0 W
Bolivar	1-2 L	0-1 L
Real Potosi	1-0 W	1-1 D
Always Ready	1-1 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional Potosi (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Tomayapo

DWLLLDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-0	2	5	W
02/11	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
25/10	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
17/10	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
09/10	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
18/09	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
14/09	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
07/09	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-3	1	4	L
27/08	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
24/08	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	0	D

Nacional Potosi

WLWWLDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
31/10	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
26/10	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	3-0	10	5	W
18/10	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
11/10	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	2-2	4	5	D
17/09	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-4	8	4	L
12/09	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
07/09	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
26/08	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
23/08	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-0	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Tomayapo vs Nacional Potosi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Tomayapo win (37%). Probabilities: Real Tomayapo 37%, draw 27%, Nacional Potosi 37%.

How many goals are expected in Real Tomayapo vs Nacional Potosi?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Real Tomayapo 1.48 · Nacional Potosi 1.48), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Tomayapo vs Nacional Potosi?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.