Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 21/11, 22:15

Prediction: Academia de Balompie Boliviano vs Club Aurora

Team pages: Academia de Balompie Boliviano · Club Aurora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Academia de Balompie Boliviano1.21

Club Aurora1.82

1X2

25% 24% 51%

Academia de Balompie Boliviano Draw Club Aurora

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Academia de Balompie Boliviano 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLLLLL

Club Aurora 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWLDLWDD

Head-to-head

Academia de Balompie Boliviano 1–5 Club Aurora (6 last)

Club Aurora2-0Academia de Balompie Boliviano
Academia de Balompie Boliviano0-1Club Aurora
Club Aurora3-2Academia de Balompie Boliviano
Club Aurora3-2Academia de Balompie Boliviano
Academia de Balompie Boliviano1-2Club Aurora
Academia de Balompie Boliviano2-1Club Aurora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Academia de Balompie Boliviano 1405 · Club Aurora 1542

	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	Draw	Club Aurora
Our model	24%	25%	51%
Market	25%	24%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Aurora (rating 1405 vs 1542).
H2H favours Club Aurora: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	Club Aurora
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.6	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.3	2.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.6	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.90

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +16’	3.70	3.90	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Academia de Balompie Boliviano 1–0–5 Club Aurora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/10/26 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Club Aurora	2-0 HT 1-0	Academia de Balompie Boliviano
25/09/26 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	0-1 HT 0-0	Club Aurora
25/07/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Club Aurora	3-2 HT 2-1	Academia de Balompie Boliviano
16/12/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Club Aurora	3-2 HT 2-0	Academia de Balompie Boliviano
25/07/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	1-2 HT 0-0	Club Aurora
19/07/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	2-1 HT 2-1	Club Aurora

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	25	19	3	3	61	24	60
2	Always Ready	25	17	6	2	61	19	57
3	The Strongest	25	14	6	5	46	29	48
4	Oriente Petrolero	25	12	5	8	42	30	41
5	Real Potosi	25	10	10	5	32	18	40
6	Club Aurora	25	8	12	5	36	32	36
7	Nacional Potosi	25	9	6	10	37	33	33
8	Guabira	25	9	6	10	40	50	33
9	Real Oruro	25	9	4	12	41	58	31
10	Blooming	25	7	10	8	33	27	31
11	Independiente Petrolero	25	8	6	11	32	42	30
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	25	8	3	14	28	50	27
13	Real Tomayapo	25	6	5	14	19	42	23
14	Universitario De Vinto	25	6	4	15	32	49	22
15	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	25	6	2	17	37	57	20
16	GV San Jose	25	4	8	13	30	47	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	Club Aurora
Always Ready	2-3 L	2-2 D
San Antonio Bulo Bulo	2-3 L	2-0 W
Real Potosi	0-1 L	0-0 D
Oriente Petrolero	0-1 L	1-1 D
Universitario De Vinto	2-0 W	1-1 D
GV San Jose	2-2 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Club Aurora (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Academia de Balompie Boliviano

DLWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-3	5	11	L
31/10	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	2-3	7	5	L
25/10	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-3	2-4	2	3	L
16/10	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
11/10	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
15/09	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
13/09	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-6	3	4	L
04/09	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
28/08	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-4	6	3	L
22/08	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	2-2	3	6	D

Club Aurora

DDWWLDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	8	7	D
31/10	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
25/10	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
17/10	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-1	8	7	L
11/10	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	2-2	12	5	D
16/09	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	1-3	9	5	L
12/09	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
05/09	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	3-0	3-0	5	4	W
27/08	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	2-2	3	7	D
22/08	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Academia de Balompie Boliviano vs Club Aurora?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Club Aurora win (51%). Probabilities: Academia de Balompie Boliviano 25%, draw 24%, Club Aurora 51%.

How many goals are expected in Academia de Balompie Boliviano vs Club Aurora?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Academia de Balompie Boliviano 1.21 · Club Aurora 1.82), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Academia de Balompie Boliviano vs Club Aurora?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.