Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 22/11, 00:30

Prediction: Oriente Petrolero vs Independiente Petrolero

Team pages: Oriente Petrolero · Independiente Petrolero

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Oriente Petrolero2.08

Independiente Petrolero0.96

1X2

62% 22% 16%

Oriente Petrolero Draw Independiente Petrolero

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Oriente Petrolero 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWDWDW

Independiente Petrolero 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLDWDL

Head-to-head

Oriente Petrolero 3–1–2 Independiente Petrolero (6 last)

Independiente Petrolero1-2Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero2-1Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero1-0Oriente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero5-2Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero2-0Independiente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero1-1Independiente Petrolero

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oriente Petrolero 1548 · Independiente Petrolero 1473

	Oriente Petrolero	Draw	Independiente Petrolero
Our model	62%	22%	16%
Market	63%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oriente Petrolero (rating 1548 vs 1473).
H2H favours Oriente Petrolero: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oriente Petrolero	Independiente Petrolero
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	1.3 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 1.1	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.33

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:07 +28’	1.48	4.33	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Oriente Petrolero 3–1–2 Independiente Petrolero

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Independiente Petrolero	1-2 HT 0-1	Oriente Petrolero
23/09/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Oriente Petrolero	2-1 HT 1-1	Independiente Petrolero
27/07/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Independiente Petrolero	1-0 HT 0-0	Oriente Petrolero
11/05/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Independiente Petrolero	5-2 HT 3-0	Oriente Petrolero
30/04/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Oriente Petrolero	2-0 HT 2-0	Independiente Petrolero
23/11/24 Bolivia Clausura	Oriente Petrolero	1-1 HT 1-1	Independiente Petrolero

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	25	19	3	3	61	24	60
2	Always Ready	25	17	6	2	61	19	57
3	The Strongest	25	14	6	5	46	29	48
4	Oriente Petrolero	25	12	5	8	42	30	41
5	Real Potosi	25	10	10	5	32	18	40
6	Club Aurora	25	8	12	5	36	32	36
7	Nacional Potosi	25	9	6	10	37	33	33
8	Guabira	25	9	6	10	40	50	33
9	Real Oruro	25	9	4	12	41	58	31
10	Blooming	25	7	10	8	33	27	31
11	Independiente Petrolero	25	8	6	11	32	42	30
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	25	8	3	14	28	50	27
13	Real Tomayapo	25	6	5	14	19	42	23
14	Universitario De Vinto	25	6	4	15	32	49	22
15	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	25	6	2	17	37	57	20
16	GV San Jose	25	4	8	13	30	47	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oriente Petrolero	Independiente Petrolero
Blooming	1-0 W	0-0 D
Guabira	1-1 D	3-1 W
Academia de Balompie Boliviano	1-0 W	4-2 W
Real Tomayapo	2-0 W	0-2 L
Real Potosi	1-2 L	1-1 D
Always Ready	1-2 L	0-2 L
San Antonio Bulo Bulo	4-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Oriente Petrolero (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oriente Petrolero

WDLLWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	13	W
31/10	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
26/10	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-1	1	7	W
19/10	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
11/10	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
18/09	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
12/09	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	1	9	L
06/09	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	10	6	L
25/08	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	3-3	4	9	D
22/08	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	4-0	3	5	W

Independiente Petrolero

LWLLLLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
30/10	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
25/10	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	3-1	4-2	2	3	W
18/10	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
12/10	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
19/09	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-3	7	0	L
13/09	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
06/09	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	0-4	0	6	L
28/08	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
23/08	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oriente Petrolero vs Independiente Petrolero?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oriente Petrolero win (62%). Probabilities: Oriente Petrolero 62%, draw 22%, Independiente Petrolero 16%.

How many goals are expected in Oriente Petrolero vs Independiente Petrolero?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Oriente Petrolero 2.08 · Independiente Petrolero 0.96), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Oriente Petrolero vs Independiente Petrolero?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.