Football · Panama Liga Prom · 09/10, 23:00
Prediction: Union Cocle Reserves vs SD Atletico Nacional
Team pages: Union Cocle Reserves · SD Atletico Nacional
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.45Total
Union Cocle Reserves1.26
SD Atletico Nacional2.19
1X2
Union Cocle Reserves
Draw
SD Atletico Nacional
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Union Cocle Reserves
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
SD Atletico Nacional
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Cocle Reserves
0–3
SD Atletico Nacional
(3 last)
- SD Atletico Nacional1-0Union Cocle Reserves
- Union Cocle Reserves2-3SD Atletico Nacional
- SD Atletico Nacional3-1Union Cocle Reserves
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Cocle Reserves 1444 · SD Atletico Nacional 1547
| Union Cocle Reserves | Draw | SD Atletico Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| Market | 20% | 23% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SD Atletico Nacional (rating 1444 vs 1547).
- H2H favours SD Atletico Nacional: 3-0-0.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 14.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Cocle Reserves | SD Atletico Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.8 | 2.1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/33/44% | 50/17/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.7 | 3.5 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.3 / 0.7 | 8.2 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Cocle Reserves 0–0–3 SD Atletico Nacional
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 Panama Liga Prom | SD Atletico Nacional | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Union Cocle Reserves |
| 01/04/26 Panama Liga Prom | Union Cocle Reserves | 2-3 | SD Atletico Nacional |
| 16/01/26 Panama Liga Prom | SD Atletico Nacional | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Union Cocle Reserves |
Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, West-South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aguilas de la U | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 7 | 30 |
| 2 | Udelas FC | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | SD Atletico Nacional | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 23 | 21 |
| 5 | San Francisco Reserves | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 19 |
| 6 | Union Cocle Reserves | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 23 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Cocle Reserves | SD Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Rayados de Chiriqui | 0-6 L | 2-0 W |
| Bocas | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Veraguas United Reserves | 0-0 D | 3-4 L |
| CD Universitario Reserves | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| La Familia FC | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Herrera FC Reserves | 4-1 W | 3-2 W |
| CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves | 1-1 D | 2-4 L |
| Udelas FC | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 3 L | 5 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Cocle Reserves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Rayados de Chiriqui Panama Liga Prom |
– | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 23/09 | Bocas Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/09 | Veraguas United Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | CD Universitario Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 9 | D |
| 06/09 | La Familia FC Panama Liga Prom |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 13 | L |
| 26/08 | Herrera FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
3-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 21/08 | San Francisco Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 12/08 | CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 05/08 | Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | SD Atletico Nacional Panama Liga Prom |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
SD Atletico Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | La Familia FC Panama Liga Prom |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 11 | W |
| 26/09 | Herrera FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 17/09 | Rayados de Chiriqui Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 12/09 | Bocas Panama Liga Prom |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 04/09 | Veraguas United Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
1-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 11 | L |
| 28/08 | CD Universitario Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
2-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
– | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 14/08 | Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 08/08 | Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 01/08 | Union Cocle Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Cocle Reserves vs SD Atletico Nacional?
According to our model, the most likely result is an SD Atletico Nacional win (57%). Probabilities: Union Cocle Reserves 20%, draw 23%, SD Atletico Nacional 57%.
How many goals are expected in Union Cocle Reserves vs SD Atletico Nacional?
The model expects 3.45 goals (Union Cocle Reserves 1.26 · SD Atletico Nacional 2.19), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Cocle Reserves vs SD Atletico Nacional?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.