Football · Panama Liga Prom · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Aguilas de la U vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves

Team pages: Aguilas de la U · CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Aguilas de la U2.04

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves1.1

1X2

58% 23% 19%

Aguilas de la U Draw CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Aguilas de la U 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWWW

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWLWDW

Head-to-head

Aguilas de la U 2–1–3 CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves (6 last)

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves1-0Aguilas de la U
CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves0-1Aguilas de la U
Aguilas de la U2-2CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves
CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves2-1Aguilas de la U
Aguilas de la U0-2CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves
Aguilas de la U1-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aguilas de la U 1617 · CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves 1556

	Aguilas de la U	Draw	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves
Our model	58%	23%	19%
Market	58%	23%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aguilas de la U (rating 1617 vs 1556).
H2H favours CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aguilas de la U	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 0.6	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	29/43/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	2.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.90

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
23:11 +9’	1.53	3.90	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguilas de la U 2–1–3 CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Panama Liga Prom	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	1-0 HT 0-0	Aguilas de la U
04/04/26 Panama Liga Prom	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	0-1	Aguilas de la U
18/01/26 Panama Liga Prom	Aguilas de la U	2-2 HT 1-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves
16/10/25 Panama Liga Prom	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	2-1 HT 0-0	Aguilas de la U
19/07/25 Panama Liga Prom	Aguilas de la U	0-2 HT 0-1	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves
26/04/25 Panama Liga Prom	Aguilas de la U	1-0 HT 0-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves

Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, West-South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aguilas de la U	11	10	0	1	37	7	30
2	Udelas FC	12	10	0	2	32	11	30
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	10	6	3	1	21	13	21
4	SD Atletico Nacional	11	7	0	4	24	23	21
5	San Francisco Reserves	12	6	1	5	19	20	19
6	Union Cocle Reserves	11	2	3	6	11	23	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aguilas de la U	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves
Bocas	3-1 W	1-1 D
Veraguas United Reserves	3-0 W	4-2 W
CD Universitario Reserves	5-1 W	1-2 L
La Familia FC	3-2 W	3-2 W
Rayados de Chiriqui	4-0 W	2-0 W
Udelas FC	2-0 W	2-1 W
San Francisco Reserves	2-0 W	2-2 D
SD Atletico Nacional	4-1 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 0 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Aguilas de la U (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aguilas de la U

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Bocas Panama Liga Prom	–	3-1	–	–	W
25/09	Veraguas United Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	3-0	2	5	W
20/09	CD Universitario Reserves Panama Liga Prom	2-0	5-1	4	2	W
13/09	La Familia FC Panama Liga Prom	3-2	3-2	7	3	W
05/09	Herrera FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	6-0	–	–	W
29/08	Rayados de Chiriqui Panama Liga Prom	–	4-0	–	–	W
22/08	Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-0	2	6	W
15/08	San Francisco Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	SD Atletico Nacional Panama Liga Prom	–	4-1	–	–	W
01/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-1	7	2	L

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves

WWDDWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Rayados de Chiriqui Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-0	7	10	W
18/09	Bocas Panama Liga Prom	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/09	Veraguas United Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	4-2	–	–	W
05/09	CD Universitario Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-1	1-2	4	8	L
29/08	La Familia FC Panama Liga Prom	2-0	3-2	4	9	W
22/08	SD Atletico Nacional Panama Liga Prom	–	4-2	–	–	W
12/08	Union Cocle Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
07/08	San Francisco Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
01/08	Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/07	Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom	0-1	2-1	7	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguilas de la U vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aguilas de la U win (58%). Probabilities: Aguilas de la U 58%, draw 23%, CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves 19%.

How many goals are expected in Aguilas de la U vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Aguilas de la U 2.04 · CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves 1.1), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Aguilas de la U vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.