Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 08/10, 15:00

Prediction: FK Orol Nukus vs PFC Terdu

Team pages: FK Orol Nukus · PFC Terdu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

FK Orol Nukus2.64

PFC Terdu0.64

1X2

81% 12% 7%

FK Orol Nukus Draw PFC Terdu

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Orol Nukus 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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PFC Terdu 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Orol Nukus 1–0 PFC Terdu (1 last)

PFC Terdu0-1FK Orol Nukus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Orol Nukus 1588 · PFC Terdu 1363

	FK Orol Nukus	Draw	PFC Terdu
Our model	79%	15%	6%
Market	83%	10%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Orol Nukus (rating 1588 vs 1363).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Orol Nukus	PFC Terdu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.6	0.4 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.3	0 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/33/0%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5.3	1.8 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.08

X9.00

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3)1.95

2 (+3)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.08 → 1.08	Bet365 1.08
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:57 +4’	1.08	9.00	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Orol Nukus 1–0–0 PFC Terdu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	PFC Terdu	0-1	FK Orol Nukus

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	20	15	4	1	42	13	49
2	Shurtan	20	13	3	4	35	19	42
3	Metallurg Bekabad	20	12	4	4	46	16	40
4	Fardu Ferghana	19	10	6	3	34	26	36
5	Kattaqorgon	19	10	3	6	24	17	33
6	FC Lochin	20	9	5	6	26	23	32
7	Olympic Mobiuz	18	9	4	5	34	20	31
8	Gazalkent	19	8	5	6	32	22	29
9	Jayxun	20	7	3	10	22	25	24
10	FC Yaypan Fergana	20	6	4	10	23	37	22
11	Respublika FA	19	6	4	9	25	29	22
12	BuxDu	19	3	1	15	15	45	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	20	3	1	16	13	46	10
14	PFC Terdu	19	1	1	17	11	44	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Orol Nukus	PFC Terdu
FC Yaypan Fergana	5-2 W	1-2 L
FC Lochin	2-0 W	1-2 L
Fardu Ferghana	1-1 D	1-5 L
Kattaqorgon	1-0 W	0-2 L
Olympic Mobiuz	1-2 L	0-3 L
Metallurg Bekabad	1-0 W	0-3 L
Gazalkent	2-0 W	1-4 L
Shurtan	3-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: FK Orol Nukus (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Orol Nukus

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	4-1	5-2	6	4	W
13/09	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
07/09	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
27/08	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	11	9	W
20/08	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
15/08	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
10/08	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
05/08	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	1-0	5	0	W
31/07	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
24/07	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-1	3	8	W

PFC Terdu

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	1-4	2	5	L
12/09	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
07/09	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
28/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
20/08	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/08	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-2	2	5	L
04/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	1-5	2	4	L
30/07	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
24/07	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-3	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Orol Nukus vs PFC Terdu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Orol Nukus win (81%). Probabilities: FK Orol Nukus 81%, draw 12%, PFC Terdu 7%.

How many goals are expected in FK Orol Nukus vs PFC Terdu?

The model expects 3.28 goals (FK Orol Nukus 2.64 · PFC Terdu 0.64), with a 56% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Orol Nukus vs PFC Terdu?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.