Football · Czechia First League · 10/10, 15:00
Prediction: Sparta Prague vs Pardubice
Team pages: Sparta Prague · Pardubice
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.65Total
Sparta Prague2.59
Pardubice1.06
1X2
Sparta Prague
Draw
Pardubice
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Sparta Prague
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Pardubice
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sparta Prague
5–1
Pardubice
(6 last)
- Sparta Prague2-4Pardubice
- Pardubice1-3Sparta Prague
- Pardubice1-2Sparta Prague
- Sparta Prague2-1Pardubice
- Pardubice1-2Sparta Prague
- Sparta Prague5-2Pardubice
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sparta Prague 1575 · Pardubice 1529
| Sparta Prague | Draw | Pardubice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 18% | 13% |
| Market | 69% | 18% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sparta Prague (rating 1575 vs 1529).
- H2H favours Sparta Prague: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sparta Prague | Pardubice | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.3 | 1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 7.6 | 2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sparta Prague 5–0–1 Pardubice
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/25 Czechia First League | Sparta Prague | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Pardubice |
| 03/08/25 Czechia First League | Pardubice | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Sparta Prague |
| 19/04/25 Czechia First League | Pardubice | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Sparta Prague |
| 19/07/24 Czechia First League | Sparta Prague | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Pardubice |
| 03/12/23 Czechia First League | Pardubice | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Sparta Prague |
| 05/08/23 Czechia First League | Sparta Prague | 5-2 HT 3-0 | Pardubice |
Standings · Czechia First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Prague | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 6 | 23 |
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 20 |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | FC Brno | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 16 |
| 6 | FK Teplice | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 16 |
| 7 | Sparta Prague | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 12 | 15 |
| 8 | FK Jablonec | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 14 |
| 9 | Hradec Kralove | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 14 |
| 10 | Viktoria Plzen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 10 |
| 11 | Banik Ostrava | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 10 |
| 12 | Bohemians 1905 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 13 | Pardubice | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 8 |
| 14 | SK Artis Brno | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 5 |
| 15 | Slovacko | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 4 |
| 16 | FC Trinity Zlin | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sparta Prague | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|
| Sigma Olomouc | 3-0 W | 1-3 L |
| FK Jablonec | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Hradec Kralove | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Slavia Prague | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| SK Artis Brno | 4-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Mlada Boleslav | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Sparta Prague (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sparta Prague
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Sigma Olomouc Czechia First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | FK Jablonec Czechia First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Hradec Kralove Czechia First League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 30/08 | Slavia Prague Czechia First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | SK Artis Brno Czechia First League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | FK Teplice Czechia First League |
3-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | Mlada Boleslav Czechia First League |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 31/07 | FC Trinity Zlin Czechia First League |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | FC Brno Czechia First League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Hradec Kralove Czechia First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
Pardubice
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Bohemians 1905 Czechia First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Banik Ostrava Czechia First League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Slovacko Czechia First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | SK Artis Brno Czechia First League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Sigma Olomouc Czechia First League |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Mlada Boleslav Czechia First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 09/08 | Slavia Prague Czechia First League |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 02/08 | FK Jablonec Czechia First League |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/07 | Hradec Kralove Czechia First League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | MFK Karvina Czechia First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sparta Prague vs Pardubice?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sparta Prague win (69%). Probabilities: Sparta Prague 69%, draw 18%, Pardubice 12%.
How many goals are expected in Sparta Prague vs Pardubice?
The model expects 3.65 goals (Sparta Prague 2.59 · Pardubice 1.06), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sparta Prague vs Pardubice?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.