Prediction: Japan vs New Zealand
- Japan2-1New Zealand
| Japan | Draw | New Zealand | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Market | 73% | 16% | 11% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Japan (rating 1584 vs 1453).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Japan | New Zealand | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.5 | 2.3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0 | 1.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Japan 1–0–0 New Zealand
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/17 International Match | Japan | 2-1 HT 0-0 | New Zealand |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Japan | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| Ecuador | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| England | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Japan (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Japan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Ecuador International Match |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 28/09 | Venezuela International Match |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 24/09 | Uruguay International Match |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Iceland International Match |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/03 | England International Match |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 28/03 | Scotland International Match |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/11 | Bolivia International Match |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 14/11 | Ghana International Match |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 14/10 | Brazil International Match |
0-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Paraguay International Match |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
New Zealand
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Panama International Match |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 27/09 | China PR International Match |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 24/09 | Palestine International Match |
2-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 06/06 | England International Match |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 03/06 | Haiti International Match |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 30/03 | Chile International Match |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 27/03 | Finland International Match |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 19/11 | Ecuador International Match |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 16/11 | Colombia International Match |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 14/10 | Norway International Match |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Japan vs New Zealand?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Japan win (72%). Probabilities: Japan 72%, draw 17%, New Zealand 11%.
How many goals are expected in Japan vs New Zealand?
The model expects 3.31 goals (Japan 2.46 · New Zealand 0.86), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Japan vs New Zealand?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.