Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 09/10, 15:00
Prediction: Costa Do Sol vs Ferroviario Lichinga
Team pages: Costa Do Sol · Ferroviario Lichinga
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.97Total
Costa Do Sol1.29
Ferroviario Lichinga0.69
1X2
Costa Do Sol
Draw
Ferroviario Lichinga
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Costa Do Sol
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Ferroviario Lichinga
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Costa Do Sol
4–1–1
Ferroviario Lichinga
(6 last)
- Ferroviario Lichinga2-1Costa Do Sol
- Costa Do Sol1-0Ferroviario Lichinga
- Costa Do Sol3-1Ferroviario Lichinga
- Costa Do Sol3-1Ferroviario Lichinga
- Costa Do Sol2-1Ferroviario Lichinga
- Costa Do Sol1-1Ferroviario Lichinga
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Costa Do Sol 1564 · Ferroviario Lichinga 1505
| Costa Do Sol | Draw | Ferroviario Lichinga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 32% | 19% |
| Market | 50% | 31% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.97 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Costa Do Sol (rating 1564 vs 1505).
- H2H favours Costa Do Sol: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Costa Do Sol | Ferroviario Lichinga | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.1 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.2 | 2.3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Costa Do Sol 4–1–1 Ferroviario Lichinga
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/26 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Lichinga | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Costa Do Sol |
| 20/08/25 Mozambique Mocambola | Costa Do Sol | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Ferroviario Lichinga |
| 23/09/24 Mozambique Mocambola | Costa Do Sol | 3-1 HT 3-0 | Ferroviario Lichinga |
| 03/06/23 Mozambique Mocambola | Costa Do Sol | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Ferroviario Lichinga |
| 03/07/22 Mozambique Mocambola | Costa Do Sol | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Ferroviario Lichinga |
| 30/07/21 Mozambique Mocambola | Costa Do Sol | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Ferroviario Lichinga |
Standings · Mozambique Mocambola
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Black Bulls | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 9 | 44 |
| 2 | Costa Do Sol | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 12 | 37 |
| 3 | Ferroviario Beira | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 22 | 11 | 34 |
| 4 | Ferroviario Maputo | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 26 |
| 5 | Ferroviario Lichinga | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 25 |
| 6 | Ferroviario de Nampula | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 21 | 24 |
| 7 | UD Songo | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 23 |
| 8 | Vilankulo FC | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 20 |
| 9 | Clube Ferroviário de Nacala | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 19 |
| 10 | AD Pemba | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 17 |
| 11 | Baía de Pemba F.C | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 16 |
| 12 | LD Sofala | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 19 | 15 |
| 13 | CD Maxaquene | 18 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 20 | 10 |
| 14 | Chingale de Tete | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 15 | 9 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Costa Do Sol | Ferroviario Lichinga |
|---|---|---|
| UD Songo | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Chingale de Tete | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| LD Sofala | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Ferroviario Beira | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Black Bulls | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Ferroviario Maputo | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Baía de Pemba F.C | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| AD Pemba | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Ferroviario de Nampula | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| Clube Ferroviário de Nacala | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 7 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Costa Do Sol (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Costa Do Sol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/09 | Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/09 | LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/08 | Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 26/08 | Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 19/08 | Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 05/08 | Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Ferroviario Lichinga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/09 | Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 30/08 | AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/08 | LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/08 | Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/08 | Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 07/08 | UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 27/07 | Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/07 | Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Costa Do Sol vs Ferroviario Lichinga?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Costa Do Sol win (50%). Probabilities: Costa Do Sol 50%, draw 31%, Ferroviario Lichinga 19%.
How many goals are expected in Costa Do Sol vs Ferroviario Lichinga?
The model expects 1.97 goals (Costa Do Sol 1.29 · Ferroviario Lichinga 0.69), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Costa Do Sol vs Ferroviario Lichinga?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.