Football · Canada Northern Super League Women · 04/10, 19:00
Prediction: AFC Toronto (W) vs Vancouver Rise FC (W)
Team pages: AFC Toronto (W) · Vancouver Rise FC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.36Total
AFC Toronto (W)2.17
Vancouver Rise FC (W)1.19
1X2
AFC Toronto (W)
Draw
Vancouver Rise FC (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
AFC Toronto (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Vancouver Rise FC (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AFC Toronto (W)
2–4
Vancouver Rise FC (W)
(6 last)
- AFC Toronto (W)0-3Vancouver Rise FC (W)
- Vancouver Rise FC (W)1-3AFC Toronto (W)
- Vancouver Rise FC (W)2-1AFC Toronto (W)
- Vancouver Rise FC (W)2-3AFC Toronto (W)
- AFC Toronto (W)1-2Vancouver Rise FC (W)
- Vancouver Rise FC (W)2-1AFC Toronto (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AFC Toronto (W) 1546 · Vancouver Rise FC (W) 1494
| AFC Toronto (W) | Draw | Vancouver Rise FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AFC Toronto (W) (rating 1546 vs 1494).
- H2H favours Vancouver Rise FC (W): 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AFC Toronto (W) | Vancouver Rise FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 2.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.4 | 2.8 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.4 / 0.3 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Toronto (W) 2–0–4 Vancouver Rise FC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 Canada Northern Super League Women | AFC Toronto (W) | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Vancouver Rise FC (W) |
| 29/06/26 Canada Northern Super League Women | Vancouver Rise FC (W) | 1-3 HT 1-1 | AFC Toronto (W) |
| 23/05/26 Canada Northern Super League Women | Vancouver Rise FC (W) | 2-1 HT 2-0 | AFC Toronto (W) |
| 25/04/26 Canada Northern Super League Women | Vancouver Rise FC (W) | 2-3 HT 2-1 | AFC Toronto (W) |
| 15/11/25 Canada Northern Super League Women | AFC Toronto (W) | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Vancouver Rise FC (W) |
| 25/07/25 Canada Northern Super League Women | Vancouver Rise FC (W) | 2-1 HT 2-1 | AFC Toronto (W) |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AFC Toronto (W) | Vancouver Rise FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Rapid FC (W) | 3-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Montreal Roses FC (W) | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Halifax Tides FC (W) | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Calgary Wild FC (W) | 6-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: AFC Toronto (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AFC Toronto (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Ottawa Rapid FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 11/09 | Montreal Roses FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/08 | Ottawa Rapid FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 23/08 | Halifax Tides FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | Montreal Roses FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 01/08 | Calgary Wild FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
4-0 | 6-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 29/07 | Calgary Wild FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 24/07 | Montreal Roses FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | Vancouver Rise FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-3 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Ottawa Rapid FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
Vancouver Rise FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Montreal Roses FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | Ottawa Rapid FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 06/09 | Halifax Tides FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Calgary Wild FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 23/08 | Ottawa Rapid FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
1-0 | 5-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Halifax Tides FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Calgary Wild FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 30/07 | Montreal Roses FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
2-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Halifax Tides FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | AFC Toronto (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AFC Toronto (W) vs Vancouver Rise FC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Toronto (W) win (59%). Probabilities: AFC Toronto (W) 59%, draw 22%, Vancouver Rise FC (W) 19%.
How many goals are expected in AFC Toronto (W) vs Vancouver Rise FC (W)?
The model expects 3.36 goals (AFC Toronto (W) 2.17 · Vancouver Rise FC (W) 1.19), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in AFC Toronto (W) vs Vancouver Rise FC (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.