Football · Kenya League Women · 03/10, 12:00

Prediction: Ulinzi Starlets (W) vs KSL FC (W)

Team pages: Ulinzi Starlets (W) · KSL FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Ulinzi Starlets (W)1.6

KSL FC (W)0.76

1X2

57% 25% 18%

Ulinzi Starlets (W) Draw KSL FC (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ulinzi Starlets (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWLWW

KSL FC (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWLDDWWWWW

Head-to-head

Ulinzi Starlets (W) 4–2–0 KSL FC (W) (6 last)

Ulinzi Starlets (W)2-0KSL FC (W)
Ulinzi Starlets (W)1-0KSL FC (W)
KSL FC (W)0-0Ulinzi Starlets (W)
Ulinzi Starlets (W)2-1KSL FC (W)
Ulinzi Starlets (W)1-0KSL FC (W)
KSL FC (W)1-1Ulinzi Starlets (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ulinzi Starlets (W) 1576 · KSL FC (W) 1573

	Ulinzi Starlets (W)	Draw	KSL FC (W)
Our model	56%	27%	17%
Market	58%	23%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ulinzi Starlets (W): 4-2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ulinzi Starlets (W)	KSL FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	1.3 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 4.9	1.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.90

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:28 +6’	1.53	3.90	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ulinzi Starlets (W) 4–2–0 KSL FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Kenya League Women	Ulinzi Starlets (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	KSL FC (W)
23/04/25 Kenya League Women	Ulinzi Starlets (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	KSL FC (W)
08/12/24 Kenya League Women	KSL FC (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Ulinzi Starlets (W)
10/07/24 Kenya Cup Women	Ulinzi Starlets (W)	2-1 HT 2-0	KSL FC (W)
02/03/24 Kenya League Women	Ulinzi Starlets (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	KSL FC (W)
29/10/23 Kenya League Women	KSL FC (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Ulinzi Starlets (W)

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ulinzi Starlets (W)	KSL FC (W)
Vihiga Queens FC (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Gideon Starlets (W)	2-0 W	1-0 W
Zetech Sparks FC (W)	3-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ulinzi Starlets (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ulinzi Starlets (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Vihiga Queens FC (W) Kenya League Women	0-0	2-1	4	0	W
19/09	Gideon Starlets (W) Kenya League Women	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
26/04	Kenya Police Bullets (W) Kenya League Women	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
04/04	Vihiga Queens FC (W) Kenya League Women	3-1	3-1	5	1	W
17/03	Zetech Sparks FC (W) Kenya League Women	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
25/01	KISPED Queens (W) Kenya League Women	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
18/01	KSL FC (W) Kenya League Women	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
13/12	Gideon Starlets (W) Kenya League Women	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
07/12	Kenya Police Bullets (W) Kenya League Women	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
30/11	Kayole Starlet (W) Kenya League Women	0-1	2-3	6	2	L

KSL FC (W)

WWLDDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Mathare United (W) Kenya League Women	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
19/09	Trinity Starlets (W) Kenya League Women	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
10/05	Zetech Sparks FC (W) Kenya League Women	3-0	3-0	3	0	W
25/03	Gideon Starlets (W) Kenya League Women	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
21/02	Madira Soccer Assassins (W) Kenya League Women	0-1	2-1	7	2	W
31/01	Trinity Starlets (W) Kenya League Women	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
24/01	Vihiga Queens FC (W) Kenya League Women	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
18/01	Ulinzi Starlets (W) Kenya League Women	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
14/01	Zetech Sparks FC (W) Kenya League Women	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
06/12	Kisumu All Starlets (W) Kenya League Women	1-0	2-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ulinzi Starlets (W) vs KSL FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ulinzi Starlets (W) win (57%). Probabilities: Ulinzi Starlets (W) 57%, draw 25%, KSL FC (W) 18%.

How many goals are expected in Ulinzi Starlets (W) vs KSL FC (W)?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Ulinzi Starlets (W) 1.6 · KSL FC (W) 0.76), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ulinzi Starlets (W) vs KSL FC (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.