Football · England Isthmian Division One South · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Kingstonian vs Bognor Regis Town

Team pages: Kingstonian

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Kingstonian1.36

Bognor Regis Town1.39

1X2

37% 26% 38%

Kingstonian Draw Bognor Regis Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Kingstonian 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWWLDW

Bognor Regis Town 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWWWWD

Head-to-head

Kingstonian 3–1–2 Bognor Regis Town (6 last)

Bognor Regis Town2-0Kingstonian
Kingstonian3-2Bognor Regis Town
Bognor Regis Town2-0Kingstonian
Bognor Regis Town2-4Kingstonian
Kingstonian2-2Bognor Regis Town
Kingstonian1-0Bognor Regis Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kingstonian 1541 · Bognor Regis Town 1584

	Kingstonian	Draw	Bognor Regis Town
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	38%	24%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bognor Regis Town (rating 1541 vs 1584).
H2H favours Kingstonian: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kingstonian	Bognor Regis Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	1.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.4	3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.4	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.80

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.38▼	Bet365 2.38
X	3.90 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
2	2.00 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.80 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:51 +6’	2.75	3.90	2.00
05:16 +3’	2.38▼	3.80▼	2.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:19 +60’	2.13	3.34	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Kingstonian 3–1–2 Bognor Regis Town

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/10/25 England Isthmian Division One South	Bognor Regis Town	2-0 HT 2-0	Kingstonian
17/02/24 England Isthmian Premier Division	Kingstonian	3-2	Bognor Regis Town
23/09/23 England Isthmian Premier Division	Bognor Regis Town	2-0 HT 0-0	Kingstonian
18/02/23 England Isthmian Premier Division	Bognor Regis Town	2-4 HT 1-2	Kingstonian
21/09/22 England Isthmian Premier Division	Kingstonian	2-2 HT 0-1	Bognor Regis Town
19/03/22 England Isthmian Premier Division	Kingstonian	1-0	Bognor Regis Town

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kingstonian	Bognor Regis Town
Binfield	2-1 W	3-0 W
Met Police	1-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bognor Regis Town (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kingstonian

LWLWWWWLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Bedfont Sports England Isthmian Division One South	4-1	6-3	6	4	W
18/08	Ascot Utd England Isthmian Division One South	2-1	3-3	6	4	D
01/04	Leatherhead England Isthmian Division One South	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
25/03	Egham England Isthmian Division One South	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
11/03	Binfield England Isthmian Division One South	2-0	2-1	0	2	W
04/03	Ascot Utd England Isthmian Division One South	1-2	4-2	2	5	W
25/02	South Park England Isthmian Division One South	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
11/11	Met Police England Isthmian Division One South	0-2	1-2	2	3	L
29/10	Hendon England Isthmian Division One South	3-0	3-1	2	2	W
25/10	Bognor Regis Town England Isthmian Division One South	0-2	0-2	5	5	L

Bognor Regis Town

WDWWDWWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	AFC Portchester England Isthmian Division One South	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
22/09	Winchester City England Isthmian Division One South	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
19/09	Harrow Borough England Isthmian Division One South	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
31/08	Moneyfields England Isthmian Division One South	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
25/08	Littlehampton Town England Isthmian Division One South	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
19/08	AFC Portchester England Isthmian Division One South	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
15/08	Windsor & Eton England Isthmian Division One South	2-2	4-2	12	3	W
25/04	Binfield England Isthmian Division One South	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
04/04	Harrow Borough England Isthmian Division One South	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
21/03	Met Police England Isthmian Division One South	1-0	3-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kingstonian vs Bognor Regis Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bognor Regis Town win (38%). Probabilities: Kingstonian 37%, draw 26%, Bognor Regis Town 38%.

How many goals are expected in Kingstonian vs Bognor Regis Town?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Kingstonian 1.36 · Bognor Regis Town 1.39), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Kingstonian vs Bognor Regis Town?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.