Football · Lithuania A Lyga Women · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: MFA Zalgiris (W) vs Kauno Rajono FA (W)

Team pages: MFA Zalgiris (W) · Kauno Rajono FA (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.19Total

MFA Zalgiris (W)3.1

Kauno Rajono FA (W)1.1

1X2

85% 9% 6%

MFA Zalgiris (W) Draw Kauno Rajono FA (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

MFA Zalgiris (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWLWLW

Kauno Rajono FA (W) 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

MFA Zalgiris (W) 4–0 Kauno Rajono FA (W) (4 last)

Kauno Rajono FA (W)0-2MFA Zalgiris (W)
MFA Zalgiris (W)4-1Kauno Rajono FA (W)
MFA Zalgiris (W)3-0Kauno Rajono FA (W)
Kauno Rajono FA (W)0-4MFA Zalgiris (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MFA Zalgiris (W) 1570 · Kauno Rajono FA (W) 1372

	MFA Zalgiris (W)	Draw	Kauno Rajono FA (W)
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	93%	5%	3%

Estimated total (ours) 4.19 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MFA Zalgiris (W) (rating 1570 vs 1372).
H2H favours MFA Zalgiris (W): 4-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MFA Zalgiris (W)	Kauno Rajono FA (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 0.8	0.5 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.3	0.3 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 4.7	1 / 1.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.03

X21.00

234.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4)1.95

2 (+4)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.95

Under 4.51.85

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.03 → 1.03	Bet365 1.03
X	21.00 → 21.00	Bet365 21.00
2	34.00 → 34.00	Bet365 34.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:50 +5’	1.03	21.00	34.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MFA Zalgiris (W) 4–0–0 Kauno Rajono FA (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/09/26 Lithuania A Lyga Women	Kauno Rajono FA (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	MFA Zalgiris (W)
07/08/26 Lithuania A Lyga Women	MFA Zalgiris (W)	4-1 HT 3-1	Kauno Rajono FA (W)
16/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga Women	MFA Zalgiris (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Kauno Rajono FA (W)
14/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga Women	Kauno Rajono FA (W)	0-4 HT 0-4	MFA Zalgiris (W)

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MFA Zalgiris (W)	Kauno Rajono FA (W)
FK Banga (W)	9-0 W	1-2 L
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W)	1-2 L	0-2 L
FA Siauliai (W)	2-0 W	0-2 L
FK Transinvest (W)	4-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: MFA Zalgiris (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MFA Zalgiris (W)

WDWWWWLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Kauno Rajono FA (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	2-0	2-0	5	0	W
23/09	Gintra Universitetas (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	1-1	1-3	1	1	L
20/09	FK Banga (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	3-0	9-0	2	0	W
13/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-1	1-2	2	0	L
06/09	FA Siauliai (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
31/08	FK Transinvest (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	2-0	4-1	8	2	W
07/08	Kauno Rajono FA (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	3-1	4-1	6	0	W
29/06	FK Banga (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	3-0	3-0	4	0	W
25/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
14/06	FK Transinvest (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	1-0	2-0	5	2	W

Kauno Rajono FA (W)

LDDLLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	MFA Zalgiris (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-2	0-2	2	0	L
22/09	FK Transinvest (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
29/08	FA Siauliai (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
23/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-2	0-2	2	2	L
15/08	FK Banga (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
07/08	MFA Zalgiris (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	1-3	1-4	1	0	L
24/06	FK Transinvest (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-3	1-6	3	1	L
13/06	FA Siauliai (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
31/05	FK Banga (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
23/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-3	0-4	1	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MFA Zalgiris (W) vs Kauno Rajono FA (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MFA Zalgiris (W) win (85%). Probabilities: MFA Zalgiris (W) 85%, draw 9%, Kauno Rajono FA (W) 6%.

How many goals are expected in MFA Zalgiris (W) vs Kauno Rajono FA (W)?

The model expects 4.19 goals (MFA Zalgiris (W) 3.1 · Kauno Rajono FA (W) 1.1), with a 55% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in MFA Zalgiris (W) vs Kauno Rajono FA (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.