Football · Uruguay Segunda · 05/10, 18:00

Prediction: Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Uruguay Montevideo

Team pages: Atletico Fenix Montevideo · Uruguay Montevideo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.65

Uruguay Montevideo0.98

1X2

52% 27% 21%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo Draw Uruguay Montevideo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Uruguay Montevideo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 2–1–1 Uruguay Montevideo (4 last)

Uruguay Montevideo3-2Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo1-1Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo0-1Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo2-0Uruguay Montevideo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1471 · Uruguay Montevideo 1461

	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Draw	Uruguay Montevideo
Our model	52%	27%	21%
Market	52%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Fenix Montevideo: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 13.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Uruguay Montevideo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	33/22/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.2	2.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.4 / 0.8	5.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.40

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:25 +24’	1.73	3.40	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 2–1–1 Uruguay Montevideo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Uruguay Segunda	Uruguay Montevideo	3-2 HT 1-2	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
15/03/26 Uruguay Segunda	Uruguay Montevideo	1-1 HT 1-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
25/08/25 Uruguay Segunda	Uruguay Montevideo	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
04/06/25 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2-0 HT 2-0	Uruguay Montevideo

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	6	3	2	1	13	7	11
2	Huracan DPA	6	2	4	0	9	6	10
3	Uruguay Montevideo	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
4	Cerrito	6	2	3	1	8	8	9
5	La Luz	6	1	4	1	5	6	7
6	CA Atenas	6	1	1	4	5	11	4
7	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	5	9	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Uruguay Montevideo
CA River Plate	1-0 W	1-1 D
Rentistas	1-2 L	1-3 L
Miramar Misiones	1-1 D	0-1 L
Tacuarembo	2-0 W	2-2 D
Plaza Colonia	1-4 L	0-1 L
La Luz	0-0 D	0-0 D
Cerrito	1-1 D	0-3 L
CA Atenas	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Fenix Montevideo (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-3	3	13	L
19/09	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
13/09	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
06/09	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-2	9	8	L
30/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
23/08	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	1	15	W
16/08	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	1-3	1-4	3	7	L
08/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
02/08	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
26/07	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	5	W

Uruguay Montevideo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-2	1-3	3	9	L
19/09	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-1	7	10	L
12/09	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-2	2	1	D
08/09	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
29/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
22/08	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	–	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
08/08	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
01/08	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	2-1	3-1	2	4	W
18/07	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	7	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Uruguay Montevideo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Fenix Montevideo win (52%). Probabilities: Atletico Fenix Montevideo 52%, draw 27%, Uruguay Montevideo 21%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Uruguay Montevideo?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1.65 · Uruguay Montevideo 0.98), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Uruguay Montevideo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.