Football · Algeria Division 1 · 13/10, 21:15

Prediction: USM Alger vs JS Saoura

Team pages: USM Alger · JS Saoura

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

USM Alger1.41

JS Saoura0.76

1X2

51% 30% 19%

USM Alger Draw JS Saoura

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

USM Alger 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDDDDWWL

JS Saoura 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDDWLDD

Head-to-head

USM Alger 2–4 JS Saoura (6 last)

USM Alger1-0JS Saoura
USM Alger1-2JS Saoura
JS Saoura1-0USM Alger
JS Saoura2-1USM Alger
USM Alger2-0JS Saoura
JS Saoura2-1USM Alger

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · USM Alger 1504 · JS Saoura 1529

	USM Alger	Draw	JS Saoura
Our model	51%	30%	19%
Market	51%	30%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours JS Saoura: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	USM Alger	JS Saoura
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 20:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.75▼	Bet365 1.75
X	2.80 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.63
2	4.10 → 4.75▲	Pinn 6.94 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:01 +10’	1.91	2.80	4.10
19:05 +4’	1.80▼	2.90▲	4.50▲
20:04 +6’	1.75▼	3.00▲	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:52 +17’	1.65	3.35	5.86
19:47 +23’	1.52▼	3.63▲	6.94▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · USM Alger 2–0–4 JS Saoura

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Algeria Cup	USM Alger	1-0 HT 1-0	JS Saoura
21/02/26 Algeria Division 1	USM Alger	1-2 HT 0-2	JS Saoura
20/09/25 Algeria Division 1	JS Saoura	1-0 HT 1-0	USM Alger
26/04/25 Algeria Division 1	JS Saoura	2-1 HT 1-0	USM Alger
16/11/24 Algeria Division 1	USM Alger	2-0 HT 1-0	JS Saoura
07/06/24 Algeria Division 1	JS Saoura	2-1 HT 1-1	USM Alger

Standings · Algeria Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CR Belouizdad	4	3	1	0	6	3	10
2	CS Constantine	4	2	1	1	9	6	7
3	MC Oran	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
4	USM Alger	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
5	MC Alger	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
6	JS Kabylie	3	2	0	1	2	1	6
7	ES Ben Aknoun	4	1	3	0	6	5	6
8	MB Rouissat	4	2	0	2	3	3	6
9	Olympique Akbou	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
10	ES Setif	4	1	1	2	5	3	4
11	CR Temouchent	4	1	1	2	2	4	4
12	JS El Biar	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
13	JS Saoura	3	0	2	1	0	4	2
14	US Biskra	4	0	2	2	2	7	2
15	USM Khenchela	3	0	2	1	1	2	2
16	ASO Chlef	4	0	1	3	3	8	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	USM Alger	JS Saoura
Olympique Akbou	3-2 W	0-0 D
JS El Biar	2-0 W	0-4 L
USM Khenchela	0-0 D	3-0 W
CR Belouizdad	1-1 D	0-0 D
Paradou AC	4-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: USM Alger (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

USM Alger

WLLDDDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	MB Rouissat Algeria Division 1	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
19/09	Olympique Akbou Algeria Division 1	1-1	3-2	4	7	W
10/09	JS El Biar Algeria Division 1	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
04/09	USM Khenchela Algeria Division 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
06/06	MC Oran Algeria Division 1	2-0	2-2	0	3	D
04/06	ES Ben Aknoun Algeria Division 1	1-0	2-2	2	1	D
02/06	CR Belouizdad Algeria Division 1	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
30/05	MB Rouissat Algeria Division 1	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
25/05	USM Khenchela Algeria Division 1	1-2	1-2	5	4	L
22/05	Paradou AC Algeria Division 1	1-1	4-2	3	3	W

JS Saoura

WDWWDDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Olympique Akbou Algeria Division 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
22/09	US Biskra Algeria Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/09	JS El Biar Algeria Division 1	0-0	0-4	2	7	L
05/06	CS Constantine Algeria Division 1	2-1	3-1	4	1	W
20/05	MC El Bayadh Algeria Division 1	0-0	0-0	14	1	D
12/05	CR Belouizdad Algeria Division 1	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
07/05	ES Mostaganem Algeria Division 1	3-0	4-0	4	0	W
17/04	USM Khenchela Algeria Division 1	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
11/04	Paradou AC Algeria Division 1	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
05/04	MC Alger Algeria Division 1	1-1	2-1	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in USM Alger vs JS Saoura?

According to our model, the most likely result is a USM Alger win (51%). Probabilities: USM Alger 51%, draw 30%, JS Saoura 19%.

How many goals are expected in USM Alger vs JS Saoura?

The model expects 2.17 goals (USM Alger 1.41 · JS Saoura 0.76), with a 55% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in USM Alger vs JS Saoura?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.