Football · Algeria Division 1 · 31/10, 15:00

Prediction: MC Alger vs USM Khenchela

Team pages: MC Alger · USM Khenchela

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

MC Alger1.75

USM Khenchela0.58

1X2

65% 23% 11%

MC Alger Draw USM Khenchela

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

MC Alger 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWWWDW

USM Khenchela 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWDDLWLL

Head-to-head

MC Alger 4–2–0 USM Khenchela (6 last)

MC Alger2-1USM Khenchela
MC Alger2-1USM Khenchela
USM Khenchela0-1MC Alger
MC Alger2-2USM Khenchela
USM Khenchela0-1MC Alger
USM Khenchela1-1MC Alger

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MC Alger 1561 · USM Khenchela 1483

	MC Alger	Draw	USM Khenchela
Our model	65%	24%	11%
Market	66%	22%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MC Alger (rating 1561 vs 1483).
H2H favours MC Alger: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MC Alger	USM Khenchela
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.8	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.2	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.10

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.36▲	Pinn 1.38
X	4.20 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.18
2	8.00 → 7.50▼	Pinn 9.26 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:38 +18’	1.33	4.20	8.00
05:55 +8’	1.36▲	4.10▼	7.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:16 +16’	1.40	4.08	8.85
21:00 +56’	1.38▼	4.18▲	9.26▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MC Alger 4–2–0 USM Khenchela

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 Algeria Division 1	MC Alger	2-1 HT 0-1	USM Khenchela
13/12/25 Algeria Cup	MC Alger	2-1 HT 1-1	USM Khenchela
30/10/25 Algeria Division 1	USM Khenchela	0-1 HT 0-0	MC Alger
15/03/25 Algeria Division 1	MC Alger	2-2 HT 0-0	USM Khenchela
18/10/24 Algeria Division 1	USM Khenchela	0-1 HT 0-1	MC Alger
11/05/24 Algeria Division 1	USM Khenchela	1-1 HT 1-1	MC Alger

Standings · Algeria Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JS Kabylie	7	5	1	1	11	3	16
2	MC Oran	7	4	3	0	5	0	15
3	CR Belouizdad	6	4	2	0	11	7	14
4	MB Rouissat	7	4	1	2	7	4	13
5	USM Alger	6	3	2	1	8	5	11
6	Olympique Akbou	7	3	2	2	9	6	11
7	MC Alger	4	3	1	0	5	1	10
8	CR Temouchent	7	2	2	3	5	8	8
9	JS El Biar	8	2	2	4	12	12	8
10	ES Setif	7	2	2	3	9	7	8
11	ES Ben Aknoun	6	1	4	1	7	7	7
12	CS Constantine	7	2	1	4	11	15	7
13	USM Khenchela	6	1	2	3	3	6	5
14	ASO Chlef	8	0	4	4	7	13	4
15	JS Saoura	6	0	3	3	0	6	3
16	US Biskra	7	0	2	5	3	13	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MC Alger	USM Khenchela
MB Rouissat	2-0 W	1-0 W
ES Ben Aknoun	3-2 W	1-1 D
CS Constantine	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: MC Alger (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MC Alger

LWWDLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	US Biskra Algeria Division 1	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
13/10	ASO Chlef Algeria Division 1	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
09/10	CR Temouchent Algeria Division 1	0-0	1-0	12	3	W
18/09	MB Rouissat Algeria Division 1	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
05/06	ASO Chlef Algeria Division 1	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
20/05	ES Setif Algeria Division 1	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
08/05	MB Rouissat Algeria Division 1	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
28/04	Olympique Akbou Algeria Division 1	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
21/04	ES Ben Aknoun Algeria Division 1	0-1	3-2	12	5	W
16/04	CS Constantine Algeria Division 1	0-0	0-2	2	5	L

USM Khenchela

WDWWDDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	JS Kabylie Algeria Division 1	0-0	0-3	7	8	L
17/10	MC Oran Algeria Division 1	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
12/10	CS Constantine Algeria Division 1	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
07/10	CR Belouizdad Algeria Division 1	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
18/09	ES Ben Aknoun Algeria Division 1	0-0	1-1	12	2	D
04/09	USM Alger Algeria Division 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
05/06	MB Rouissat Algeria Division 1	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
25/05	USM Alger Algeria Division 1	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
19/05	CS Constantine Algeria Division 1	2-2	2-2	5	1	D
08/05	MC El Bayadh Algeria Division 1	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MC Alger vs USM Khenchela?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MC Alger win (65%). Probabilities: MC Alger 65%, draw 23%, USM Khenchela 11%.

How many goals are expected in MC Alger vs USM Khenchela?

The model expects 2.33 goals (MC Alger 1.75 · USM Khenchela 0.58), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in MC Alger vs USM Khenchela?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.