Football · Spain Tercera Group 15 · 14/11, 16:15

Prediction: UDC Txantrea vs Mutilvera

Team pages: UDC Txantrea

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

UDC Txantrea1.15

Mutilvera1.25

1X2

33% 28% 38%

UDC Txantrea Draw Mutilvera

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

UDC Txantrea 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDLDDWWL

Mutilvera 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWWWDD

Head-to-head

UDC Txantrea 0–2–4 Mutilvera (6 last)

Mutilvera6-0UDC Txantrea
UDC Txantrea1-1Mutilvera
Mutilvera1-1UDC Txantrea
Mutilvera5-2UDC Txantrea
UDC Txantrea0-4Mutilvera
Mutilvera1-0UDC Txantrea

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UDC Txantrea 1501 · Mutilvera 1578

	UDC Txantrea	Draw	Mutilvera
Our model	32%	30%	37%
Market	34%	27%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mutilvera (rating 1501 vs 1578).
H2H favours Mutilvera: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UDC Txantrea	Mutilvera
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.7 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/50/33%	60/0/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 4.5	2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	6.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.30

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:14 +54’	2.63	3.30	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UDC Txantrea 0–2–4 Mutilvera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 15	Mutilvera	6-0 HT 3-0	UDC Txantrea
01/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 15	UDC Txantrea	1-1	Mutilvera
09/11/19 Spain Tercera Group 15	Mutilvera	1-1	UDC Txantrea
11/05/19 Spain Tercera Group 15	Mutilvera	5-2	UDC Txantrea
22/12/18 Spain Tercera Group 15	UDC Txantrea	0-4	Mutilvera
14/04/18 Spain Tercera Group 15	Mutilvera	1-0	UDC Txantrea

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 15

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Izarra	10	8	2	0	28	6	26
2	Mutilvera	10	6	4	0	17	5	22
3	Subiza	10	5	1	4	19	15	16
4	Beti Kozkor KE	10	5	1	4	12	13	16
5	Valle Egues	10	4	4	2	17	14	16
6	AD San Juan	10	4	3	3	17	10	15
7	CF Gazte Berriak	10	4	3	3	9	7	15
8	Avance	10	4	2	4	15	11	14
9	Aoiz	10	3	5	2	12	9	14
10	Doneztebe FT	10	3	4	3	17	13	13
11	UDC Txantrea	10	3	4	3	12	13	13
12	Cirbonero	10	3	3	4	10	14	12
13	CD Cantolagua	10	4	0	6	8	21	12
14	CD Beti Onak	10	2	5	3	12	14	11
15	Huarte	10	1	5	4	7	15	8
16	CD Pamplona	10	1	4	5	7	15	7
17	CD Cortes	10	1	3	6	5	19	6
18	Bidezarra	10	0	5	5	7	17	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UDC Txantrea	Mutilvera
Izarra	0-0 D	2-2 D
CD Cortes	0-0 D	1-1 D
Beti Kozkor KE	0-2 L	3-0 W
Bidezarra	2-2 D	3-1 W
AD San Juan	1-0 W	1-0 W
Cirbonero	1-1 D	4-0 W
Avance	0-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mutilvera (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UDC Txantrea

LDWDLDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Subiza Spain Tercera Group 15	1-2	1-2	6	8	L
31/10	CD Beti Onak Spain Tercera Group 15	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
24/10	CD Pamplona Spain Tercera Group 15	1-1	5-1	0	2	W
18/10	Izarra Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-0	–	–	D
08/10	CD Cortes Spain Tercera Group 15	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
03/10	Beti Kozkor KE Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/09	Bidezarra Spain Tercera Group 15	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
19/09	AD San Juan Spain Tercera Group 15	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Cirbonero Spain Tercera Group 15	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
05/09	Avance Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-4	–	–	L

Mutilvera

DWDWWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Izarra Spain Tercera Group 15	0-2	2-2	2	9	D
31/10	CD Cortes Spain Tercera Group 15	–	1-1	–	–	D
24/10	Beti Kozkor KE Spain Tercera Group 15	–	3-0	–	–	W
17/10	Bidezarra Spain Tercera Group 15	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/10	AD San Juan Spain Tercera Group 15	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
04/10	Cirbonero Spain Tercera Group 15	–	4-0	–	–	W
26/09	Avance Spain Tercera Group 15	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
19/09	Valle Egues Spain Tercera Group 15	0-1	1-1	0	6	D
12/09	CF Gazte Berriak Spain Tercera Group 15	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
05/09	Huarte Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UDC Txantrea vs Mutilvera?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mutilvera win (38%). Probabilities: UDC Txantrea 33%, draw 28%, Mutilvera 38%.

How many goals are expected in UDC Txantrea vs Mutilvera?

The model expects 2.4 goals (UDC Txantrea 1.15 · Mutilvera 1.25), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in UDC Txantrea vs Mutilvera?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.