Football · Spain Tercera Group 15 · 13/11, 20:30

Prediction: AD San Juan vs CF Gazte Berriak

Team pages: AD San Juan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

AD San Juan1.57

CF Gazte Berriak0.64

1X2

60% 25% 15%

AD San Juan Draw CF Gazte Berriak

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

AD San Juan 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLWDWD

CF Gazte Berriak 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWLDLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD San Juan 1517 · CF Gazte Berriak 1509

	AD San Juan	Draw	CF Gazte Berriak
Our model	59%	27%	14%
Market	61%	24%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 13.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD San Juan	CF Gazte Berriak
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	0.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/17/50%	29/57/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.2	0.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.8	7.6 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.48

X3.80

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:38 +24’	1.48	3.80	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Tercera Group 15

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Izarra	10	8	2	0	28	6	26
2	Mutilvera	10	6	4	0	17	5	22
3	Subiza	10	5	1	4	19	15	16
4	Beti Kozkor KE	10	5	1	4	12	13	16
5	Valle Egues	10	4	4	2	17	14	16
6	AD San Juan	10	4	3	3	17	10	15
7	CF Gazte Berriak	10	4	3	3	9	7	15
8	Avance	10	4	2	4	15	11	14
9	Aoiz	10	3	5	2	12	9	14
10	Doneztebe FT	10	3	4	3	17	13	13
11	UDC Txantrea	10	3	4	3	12	13	13
12	Cirbonero	10	3	3	4	10	14	12
13	CD Cantolagua	10	4	0	6	8	21	12
14	CD Beti Onak	10	2	5	3	12	14	11
15	Huarte	10	1	5	4	7	15	8
16	CD Pamplona	10	1	4	5	7	15	7
17	CD Cortes	10	1	3	6	5	19	6
18	Bidezarra	10	0	5	5	7	17	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD San Juan	CF Gazte Berriak
Huarte	0-0 D	2-0 W
Doneztebe FT	3-1 W	1-0 W
Aoiz	1-1 D	1-1 D
CD Cantolagua	4-0 W	1-0 W
Mutilvera	0-1 L	0-1 L
Subiza	2-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AD San Juan (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD San Juan

WLLDWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Huarte Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-0	–	–	D
30/10	Doneztebe FT Spain Tercera Group 15	0-1	3-1	4	7	W
24/10	Aoiz Spain Tercera Group 15	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/10	CD Cantolagua Spain Tercera Group 15	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
10/10	Mutilvera Spain Tercera Group 15	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
03/10	Subiza Spain Tercera Group 15	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
26/09	CD Beti Onak Spain Tercera Group 15	0-0	1-1	2	15	D
19/09	UDC Txantrea Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Izarra Spain Tercera Group 15	–	1-4	–	–	L
05/09	CD Cortes Spain Tercera Group 15	2-0	5-0	2	6	W

CF Gazte Berriak

WLWDWWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Cirbonero Spain Tercera Group 15	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
31/10	Avance Spain Tercera Group 15	–	1-2	–	–	L
25/10	Valle Egues Spain Tercera Group 15	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
18/10	CD Pamplona Spain Tercera Group 15	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
09/10	Huarte Spain Tercera Group 15	0-0	2-0	5	9	W
04/10	Doneztebe FT Spain Tercera Group 15	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/09	Aoiz Spain Tercera Group 15	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	CD Cantolagua Spain Tercera Group 15	1-0	1-0	4	12	W
12/09	Mutilvera Spain Tercera Group 15	0-1	0-1	1	10	L
05/09	Subiza Spain Tercera Group 15	2-1	3-2	3	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD San Juan vs CF Gazte Berriak?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD San Juan win (60%). Probabilities: AD San Juan 60%, draw 25%, CF Gazte Berriak 15%.

How many goals are expected in AD San Juan vs CF Gazte Berriak?

The model expects 2.21 goals (AD San Juan 1.57 · CF Gazte Berriak 0.64), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AD San Juan vs CF Gazte Berriak?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.