Football · Panama Liga Prom · 24/09, 23:00

Prediction: Herrera FC Reserves vs SD Atletico Nacional

Team pages: Herrera FC Reserves · SD Atletico Nacional

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.99Total

Herrera FC Reserves1.03

SD Atletico Nacional2.96

1X2

10% 15% 76%

Herrera FC Reserves Draw SD Atletico Nacional

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Herrera FC Reserves 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLLLLL

SD Atletico Nacional 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Herrera FC Reserves 0–3–3 SD Atletico Nacional (6 last)

SD Atletico Nacional2-0Herrera FC Reserves
Herrera FC Reserves0-4SD Atletico Nacional
SD Atletico Nacional5-0Herrera FC Reserves
Herrera FC Reserves1-1SD Atletico Nacional
SD Atletico Nacional0-0Herrera FC Reserves
Herrera FC Reserves1-1SD Atletico Nacional

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Herrera FC Reserves 1416 · SD Atletico Nacional 1519

	Herrera FC Reserves	Draw	SD Atletico Nacional
Our model	9%	15%	76%
Market	10%	15%	76%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SD Atletico Nacional (rating 1416 vs 1519).
H2H favours SD Atletico Nacional: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Herrera FC Reserves	SD Atletico Nacional
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.9	1.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/29/43%	29/43/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.6	3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.4	6.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

19.50

X6.25

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.85

2 (-2.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
X	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
2	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:52 +19’	9.50	6.25	1.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Herrera FC Reserves 0–3–3 SD Atletico Nacional

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/03/26 Panama Liga Prom	SD Atletico Nacional	2-0 HT 0-0	Herrera FC Reserves
12/03/25 Panama Liga Prom	Herrera FC Reserves	0-4 HT 0-2	SD Atletico Nacional
13/09/24 Panama Liga Prom	SD Atletico Nacional	5-0 HT 1-0	Herrera FC Reserves
17/03/24 Panama Liga Prom	Herrera FC Reserves	1-1 HT 0-1	SD Atletico Nacional
30/09/23 Panama Liga Prom	SD Atletico Nacional	0-0 HT 0-0	Herrera FC Reserves
11/03/23 Panama Liga Prom	Herrera FC Reserves	1-1 HT 0-1	SD Atletico Nacional

Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, West-South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aguilas de la U	9	8	0	1	31	6	24
2	Udelas FC	9	7	0	2	23	10	21
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	9	5	3	1	19	13	18
4	SD Atletico Nacional	9	5	0	4	19	20	15
5	San Francisco Reserves	9	4	1	4	16	16	13
6	Union Cocle Reserves	9	1	3	5	10	17	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Herrera FC Reserves	SD Atletico Nacional
San Francisco Reserves	0-1 L	3-2 W
Udelas FC	1-3 L	1-3 L
Aguilas de la U	0-6 L	1-4 L
Union Cocle Reserves	1-4 L	1-0 W
Veraguas United Reserves	2-4 L	3-4 L
Bocas	3-1 W	3-2 W
CD Universitario Reserves	1-3 L	3-1 W
Rayados de Chiriqui	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: SD Atletico Nacional (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Herrera FC Reserves

LLLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	San Francisco Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-1	9	6	L
12/09	Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom	–	1-3	–	–	L
05/09	Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom	–	0-6	–	–	L
26/08	Union Cocle Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-3	1-4	5	8	L
21/08	Veraguas United Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-2	2-4	6	4	L
16/08	La Familia FC Panama Liga Prom	1-0	5-1	4	6	W
08/08	Bocas Panama Liga Prom	2-0	3-1	1	8	W
02/08	CD Universitario Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-1	1-3	1	6	L
25/07	Rayados de Chiriqui Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
02/05	Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom	–	0-5	–	–	L

SD Atletico Nacional

DWWLLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Rayados de Chiriqui Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-0	7	8	W
12/09	Bocas Panama Liga Prom	–	3-2	–	–	W
04/09	Veraguas United Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-3	3-4	6	11	L
28/08	CD Universitario Reserves Panama Liga Prom	2-0	3-1	10	7	W
22/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	2-4	–	–	L
14/08	Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom	0-1	1-3	4	8	L
08/08	Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom	–	1-4	–	–	L
01/08	Union Cocle Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-0	7	7	W
25/07	San Francisco Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	3-2	5	4	W
02/05	Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Herrera FC Reserves vs SD Atletico Nacional?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SD Atletico Nacional win (76%). Probabilities: Herrera FC Reserves 10%, draw 15%, SD Atletico Nacional 76%.

How many goals are expected in Herrera FC Reserves vs SD Atletico Nacional?

The model expects 3.99 goals (Herrera FC Reserves 1.03 · SD Atletico Nacional 2.96), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Herrera FC Reserves vs SD Atletico Nacional?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.