Football · Nigeria Premier League · 15/11, 16:00

Prediction: Katsina Utd vs Nasarawa United

Team pages: Katsina Utd · Nasarawa United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Katsina Utd1.35

Nasarawa United0.83

1X2

48% 30% 22%

Katsina Utd Draw Nasarawa United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Katsina Utd 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWLDWD

Nasarawa United 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWDWWWLW

Head-to-head

Katsina Utd 3–3 Nasarawa United (6 last)

Katsina Utd1-0Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United2-0Katsina Utd
Nasarawa United1-0Katsina Utd
Katsina Utd1-0Nasarawa United
Katsina Utd1-0Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United1-0Katsina Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Katsina Utd 1526 · Nasarawa United 1520

	Katsina Utd	Draw	Nasarawa United
Our model	48%	31%	22%
Market	49%	29%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Katsina Utd	Nasarawa United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	50/33/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 3.7	3.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.10

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:41	1.85	3.10	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Katsina Utd 3–0–3 Nasarawa United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Nigeria Premier League	Katsina Utd	1-0	Nasarawa United
28/09/25 Nigeria Premier League	Nasarawa United	2-0 HT 1-0	Katsina Utd
25/01/25 Nigeria Premier League	Nasarawa United	1-0 HT 1-0	Katsina Utd
29/12/24 Nigeria Premier League	Katsina Utd	1-0	Nasarawa United
15/05/22 Nigeria Premier League	Katsina Utd	1-0	Nasarawa United
23/01/22 Nigeria Premier League	Nasarawa United	1-0 HT 0-0	Katsina Utd

Standings · Nigeria Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enugu Rangers	11	7	3	1	17	10	24
2	Kano Pillars	14	5	8	1	17	13	23
3	Bendel Insurance	13	7	0	6	21	19	21
4	Barau FC	13	4	8	1	14	10	20
5	Nasarawa United	12	6	2	4	14	11	20
6	Rivers United	11	4	6	1	15	5	18
7	Shooting Stars	13	5	3	5	18	17	18
8	Doma United	12	4	5	3	15	15	17
9	Katsina Utd	12	4	5	3	15	16	17
10	Plateau United	12	4	4	4	19	17	16
11	Sporting Lagos	11	4	4	3	15	14	16
12	Niger Tornadoes	12	4	4	4	10	10	16
13	Ikorodu City FC	12	3	6	3	17	15	15
14	Warri Wolves FC	12	3	5	4	8	9	14
15	Kun Khalifat FC	12	3	4	5	10	17	13
16	Kwara United	12	3	3	6	12	14	12
17	Ranchers Bees	12	3	3	6	12	15	12
18	Enyimba	12	3	2	7	12	16	11
19	Abia Warriors	12	2	5	5	12	19	11
20	Inter Lagos	12	1	4	7	8	19	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Katsina Utd	Nasarawa United
Plateau United	2-2 D	3-1 W
Kano Pillars	0-1 L	0-2 L
Enyimba	4-2 W	1-0 W
Inter Lagos	1-1 D	2-0 W
Rivers United	1-1 D	1-1 D
Doma United	2-1 W	2-0 W
Shooting Stars	0-2 L	0-0 D
Niger Tornadoes	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nasarawa United (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Katsina Utd

WLWDDWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Warri Wolves FC Nigeria Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
01/11	Sporting Lagos Nigeria Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
24/10	Plateau United Nigeria Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/10	Kano Pillars Nigeria Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
09/10	Enyimba Nigeria Premier League	2-0	4-2	–	–	W
04/10	Inter Lagos Nigeria Premier League	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
30/09	Rivers United Nigeria Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Doma United Nigeria Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
23/09	Shooting Stars Nigeria Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
19/09	Niger Tornadoes Nigeria Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W

Nasarawa United

LDLWDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Plateau United Nigeria Premier League	0-1	3-1	11	6	W
01/11	Kano Pillars Nigeria Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
25/10	Enyimba Nigeria Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
18/10	Inter Lagos Nigeria Premier League	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
11/10	Doma United Nigeria Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
04/10	Shooting Stars Nigeria Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
27/09	Niger Tornadoes Nigeria Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
23/09	Kwara United Nigeria Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
20/09	Rivers United Nigeria Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/09	Enugu Rangers Nigeria Premier League	1-1	1-2	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Katsina Utd vs Nasarawa United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Katsina Utd win (48%). Probabilities: Katsina Utd 48%, draw 30%, Nasarawa United 22%.

How many goals are expected in Katsina Utd vs Nasarawa United?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Katsina Utd 1.35 · Nasarawa United 0.83), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Katsina Utd vs Nasarawa United?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.